Thursday's NBA odds board has two options to choose from, but within those contests is an almost endless list of NBA player props.
After scouring through a plethora options, I'm here to give you my best NBA picks for May 1.
Best NBA player props today
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Anunoby o1.5 assists (+135) -
Harden o2.5 threes (+105) - Towns o10.5 rebounds (-130)
NBA player props for May 1
OG Anunoby Over 1.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
OG Anunoby’s inside-out offense sees him on the attack more than moving the basketball, which is why the Knicks' small forward has only three total assists through the first five games of this quarterfinal series.
On the season, OG averaged just over two assists per game, but with the New York offense stagnant for most of Round 1, those opportunities to set up his teammates haven’t been as abundant.
Anunoby has recorded only 2.4 potential assists per game vs. the Pistons, but did see that advanced metric climb to 3.0 in Game 5.
The Knicks have emphasized pushing the pace and getting out in transition for a crucial Game 6 in Detroit, and an uptick in tempo could spark what was the second-best transition offense in the NBA.
Player projections for Anunoby all come in at two or more assists while his player prop sits at 1.5 O/U, with the Over presenting a solid return at +135. Given my number comes out to 2.2 assist, the Over should be priced closer to -170.
Anunoby did have two dimes in Game 2, and it’s not a massive ask for someone who’s going to log 40 minutes tonight — especially if New York’s offense can wake up.
James Harden Over 2.5 threes (+105 at bet365)
The Nuggets have thrown the kitchen sink at James Harden the past two games, holding him to a total of 26 points on a collective 8-for-20 shooting.
Denver has been very aggressive with its approach to the Clippers’ veteran guard, shadowing him with Christian Braun and blitzing him with pressure and doubles on the outside.
That’s taken away Harden’s 3-point opportunities, leaving him to shoot just four triples in those contests That’s a big swing in activity after Harden launched up 28 shots from beyond the arc in the first three games of the series (making 11).
Los Angeles coach Tyronn Lue emphasized the importance of winning the 3-point war after Game 5, in which the Nuggets hit 17 threes to L.A.’s 11. He also stressed the need to free up Harden and get him going ahead of Game 6. Lue had this to say:
I got to do a better job of just finding ways to get him open, to get him space and provide more (isolations). Just because they are blitzing him so much and trying to beat him to his spots.
Harden’s 3-point prop has seen a wild swing in this series. While the total has remained the same at 2.5 O/U, the vig on Over 2.5 was as high as -165 for Game 4. But after Denver smothered him in the past two contests, that same ask is paying +105 in Game 6.
Harden’s prop market on 3-point attempts is set at 6.5 O/U with the Over juiced to -140, so bookies expect at least seven attempts from long range in Game 6. Player projections call for three 3-pointers with his attempts as high as 9.3.
The Over 2.5 3-pointers made opened as high as +115 at some sharper operators and has since swung to -109. Other books are still dealing plus money on the same option.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 10.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
Towns was big on the boards in Game 5, hauling in 11 rebounds to go along with 17 points in the home loss to the Pistons. New York needs another standout game from the versatile center tonight if it wants to avoid a Game 7 showdown and losing all momentum to Detroit.
For the series, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging nine rebounds, which is down from his season average of 12.8 rebounds per game. Game 6 rebounding projections range from 10.7 to a ceiling of 14.1 from the 7-footer.
New York has talked about picking up the pace on offense, which means more shots and therefore more misses — AKA rebounding opportunities. If the Knicks are going to put the Pistons away, they need to win the battle on the boards and secure those 50/50 balls.
Given KAT’s rebounding models, my number comes out to 12.4 boards in Game 6. That should have the Over 10.5 listed around -195, which takes some of the sting out of laying -130 for the Over tonight.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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