The best two words in sports, right? Game 7.
Actually, there's a better three-word phrase in sports. Two Game 7s. Welcome to Sunday, May 19, in the NBA playoffs. What more need be said?
Let’s find some NBA picks and NBA odds in both the Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets.
Best NBA player props today
- Josh Hart Under 11.5 rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)
- Mike Conley Over 2.5 made 3s (+158 at FanDuel)
- Rudy Gobert Under 10.5 points (-119 at Pinnacle)
Picks made on 5-19 at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best NBA bonuses
All Users
Instant payout for NBA moneylines
If your team goes up by 20! Claim Now
See our bet365 sportsbook review
New Users
Get a no-sweat first bet
Up to $1,500! Claim Now
See our BetMGM sportsbook review
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
NBA player props for May 19
Prop bet #1: Josh Hart Under 11.5 rebounds
This is not fun. This is not the bet you will be proudest of in life, probably not even this weekend, but it's still an obvious choice.
Josh Hart’s abdominal strain may not keep him sidelined this afternoon, but it will almost assuredly impact his play. Here is an unusual piece of handicapping: Real quick, focus on your rib cage and throw your hands above your head. Feel all those muscles in your ribs? Now, imagine trying to grab rebounds against an NBA team while something in that range is restricted and painful.
Furthermore, if OG Anunoby manages to play through his hamstring strain, that could mercifully lessen Hart’s minutes.
Yet, this rebounding prop has hardly been knocked down. Hart has not reached 12 rebounds in three games. Yes, Game 4 was an absolute blowout, but grabbing just three boards in 24 minutes was hardly encouraging.
Expecting Hart to be his most frenetic self while his core is compromised is a foolish decision made presumably entirely by numbers and algorithms.
Josh Hart prop: Under 11.5 rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Mike Conley Over 2.5 threes
The Minnesota Timberwolves know they need auxiliary offense tonight. The Denver Nuggets will sell out to slow Anthony Edwards while still paying added attention to Karl-Anthony Towns. That defensive strategy works if no other Minnesota piece finds a rhythm.
In Game 6, Jaden McDaniels went off for 21 points on just 10 shots. In Game 2, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid had 14 each on 15 total shots. And in Game 1, Reid scored 16 while Mike Conley had a quiet 14-point night despite taking only eight shots.
In a tense Game 7 moment, the veteran point guard should take on more of that burden than the inexperienced 20-somethings. Conley shot 44.2% from beyond the arc in the regular season and is at 41.7% in this series.
Of those auxiliary offensive options, Conley will be the one with the ball in his hands the most. He will have the most opportunities to warn Denver’s defense against overloading on Edwards.
Firing a few shots from deep would put the Nuggets on notice in a way that could then open up the court for Edwards in the second half, the Timberwolves’ best path toward victory.
Mike Conley prop: Over 2.5 threes (+158 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Rudy Gobert Under 10.5 points
Rudy Gobert has been fined $175,000 this season for criticizing Scott Foster’s officiating. Great news for the charities that receive the NBA’s collections of fines, Scott Foster is on duty for Game 7 in Denver.
More genuinely, Gobert’s best offensive impact for Minnesota is that his touches, even on missed shots, lead to worse transition opportunities for Nikola Jokic & Co.
The Nuggets have fewer than 10 fast break points in three games this series, 24 total points in those three games. Not coincidentally, eight of Gobert’s 11 misses in this series came in those games. When he misses, Minnesota’s best defenders are usually above the break, anyway.
Feeding the ball to Gobert for those offensive looks will be less of a priority in this Game 7. The game will open slowly, trepidation showing through. It's only human nature. Fast breaks simply will not be a pressing thought in the first quarter if not the first half.
If Gobert does not get those touches early, they are less likely to be available late, when Edwards and Conley will be counted on most.
Rudy Gobert prop: Under 10.5 points (-119 at Pinnacle)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
