Best NBA Player Props Today: No Passing on This Dort Market

Prop bet #1: Bane, set, match

The Victor Wembanyama Tour heads to Memphis as the San Antonio Spurs visit Ja Morant and the Grizzlies on Tuesday night.

Morant has been back for a couple of weeks now after serving his 25-game suspension, and obviously, his return impacts the Grizzlies' offense. Most notably, Desmond Bane doesn’t need to carry the entire scoring load anymore.

And while you might think that would lower Bane’s production, that hasn’t been the case. Bane is actually averaging 24.9 points per game since Morant has returned. And he has upped his 3-point output as well. The Memphis shooting guard was taking 9.0 three attempts per game, and that has bumped up to 10.1 in the six games with Morant back on the court.

Which makes sense when you think about it. Morant is a slasher always driving to the rim and sucking defenders in to help out. Leaving his teammates open on the perimeter to hit threes. And Bane is the best at that, shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc this season, with that number bumping up to 42.6% over his last 14 games. And he should have plenty of opportunities to keep that going tonight.

The Spurs can thank the Detroit Pistons for distracting everyone from the fact they're just 5-27 this season. And a big reason for the Spurs' struggles is their defense. San Antonio ranks 25th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent effective field goal percentage.

But the Spurs' real problem is on the perimeter. San Antonio allows the seventh most 3-point attempts per game, while ranking next-to-last in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, resulting in opponents hitting a league-high 14.5 made threes per game.

Bane has hit four or more threes eight times over his last 14 games. At plus money, it's worth backing Desmond Bane odds to do so once again in this matchup.

Desmond Bane prop: Over 3.5 made threes (+105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Dort minor

The best matchup in the NBA tonight, without a doubt, takes place in Oklahoma City as the 22-9 Thunder take on the 26-6 Boston Celtics.

The East-leading Celtics enter this matchup winners of six in a row, while the Thunder, who sit in second place in the West, have won four straight.

The Celtics are the favorites here, laying four points on the road. But what I find interesting here is the total. That’s on the board at a big 239.5 — which stands out to me because both Boston and OKC rank in the Top 5 when it comes to defensive rating.

So, oddsmakers think the shooters will have the edge here. And that means buckets. Lots of them. On top of that, if the Thunder want to keep this one close, or even pull off the upset, they're going to need to be committed to making the extra pass against a very good, switchable Celtics defense.

That means I'm looking at Thunder assist props, and the value that stands out on the board to me are Lu Dort odds to hit Over 1.5 assists at +140.

With the development of the team, the Thunder’s 3-and-D swingman has seen his usage drop a bit this year. But he's still averaging nearly 30 minutes per game. And while he hasn’t been known as much of a playmaker, this is a good spot to back the Over.

Dort is averaging 1.3 assists per game this season, but that's up to 1.8 over his last eight games, having recorded at least two assists five times over that stretch. In a game projected to have a fair amount of scoring, I like Dort to dish out at least a couple of dimes in this spot, and the +140 price tag is impossible to ignore.

Lu Dort prop: Over 1.5 assists (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: On-Brand

The Golden State Warriors dynasty looks like it’s on its last leg. The Warriors open the new year with a 15-17 record, a suspended Draymond Green, a middling defense, and most shockingly, a middling offense as well. Tonight, the falling Warriors take on a team on the rise in the Orlando Magic. 

The turbulent season has forced head coach Steve Kerr to try some new things out. That, and improved play, has meant more minutes for rookie Brandin Podziemski. The Warriors' first-year shooting guard out of Santa Clara has seen his minutes shoot up over the last month or so.

Podziemski is averaging 29.2 minutes per game over his last 14 games, which includes eight starts. He’s putting up 11.4 points while shooting 42.1% from 3-point range over that stretch. But that’s not where I’m going with this.

More minutes also means more ball possessions and the opportunity for more turnovers. Podziemski's averaging 1.7 turnovers per game over this 14-game period where he has seen his minutes drastically increase. And one of the biggest reasons for this Magic breakout this season is because of their defense.

Orlando ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive rating and allows the second-fewest field goal attempts per game. One of the ways the Magic keep attempts down is by getting hands in the passing lanes. They rank fifth in the NBA in steals and eighth in deflections per game.

Podziemski has turned the ball over multiple times in four of his eight games as a starter and six of his last 10 overall. Over 1.5 turnovers for him in this matchup is on the board at +160. Sign me up for these Brandin Podziemski odds. 

Brandin Podziemski prop: Over 1.5 turnovers (+160 at bet365)