We have plenty of NBA odds to search through with eleven games on tonight's schedule, highlighted by an NBA MVP battle in Denver between Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. Will both superstars post a triple-double in this head-to-head matchup and enhance their MVP resumes?
We're back for another week of NBA player props as we approach the Christmas Day games, which are always among the best days on the NBA calendar. On Friday, we swept the board thanks to Dejounte Murray, Deni Avdija, and Dennis Schroder, and we plan on maintaining the momentum this week to contribute to Santa's budget for the upcoming weekend.
While Doncic aims to make a statement against NBA MVP odds favorite Jokic and the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already achieved that over the weekend. Gilgeous-Alexander hit a game-winning mid-range jump shot with just under a second to go in the game.
Not only is SGA one of the favorites for the NBA MVP and Clutch Player of the Year, but he is also the focal point of our NBA player props tonight. Let's take a closer look in our NBA picks for Monday, December 18.
Best NBA player props today
- Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 ast (+106 at FanDuel)
- George Over 3.5 ast (-135 at bet365)
- Doncic Under 9.5 ast (+130 at DraftKings)
Picks made on December 18 at 6:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for December 18
Prop bet #1: Not today, SGA
An Under bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander suggests that nobody is safe when it comes to hunting for value. Do I actually want to root for SGA to go Under on one of his player props? Absolutely not. He is one of my favorite players in the NBA, and I'm actively in the market for a Gilgeous-Alexander Canada basketball jersey.
If you're searching through his most recent box scores, this bet might make you a bit uneasy, as SGA has exceeded his assists total in three straight games and six of his last seven. On the flip side, his total has moved from 5.5 to 6.5, and not only is it currently trading at 6.5, but we're also observing increased juice on the Over.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be facing the Memphis Grizzlies, and I believe the matchup presents an opportunity to exploit an inflated line. While the Grizzlies are struggling, their interior defense remains strong, anchored by reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Thunder's offensive advantage will be on the perimeter and the wings, so Gilgeous-Alexander shouldn't be focused on setting up shots around the rim. Instead, he will be hunting his own shot.
Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 6.3 assists, which means we can price the Under 6.5 assists at -130. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 10%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Under 6.5 assists (+106 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: It's personal for Paul George
When searching for assist props, it's all about the numbers, but it's always nice when you can find an extra boost to a prop that is already showing value. A matchup with the Indiana Pacers, specifically in Indiana, is very personal for Paul George. This is the franchise where he made a name for himself. The Pacers had a ton of success during his time there, and he only gets to return once a year because he now plays in the Western Conference.
When playing against the Pacers, the games tend to be very high-scoring, and the more scoring we have in a game, the greater the potential for assists. Pacers games are high-scoring because they are limited in what they can do on the defensive side of the ball. The one adjustment they have made is selling out to defend the three-point shot and running opponents off the line.
As a shooter, this strategy plays right into George's game, opening the door for potential assists. If they aggressively overplay George on the 3-point line, he will be able to attack and create shots for other players.
The beauty of playing against the Pacers is that not only will they be running George off the 3-point line, but when he dishes it to a teammate, there will be limited rim protection, making these potential assists likely to be converted at a high rate. Additionally, George has multiple teammates who can get downhill off his pass and finish at the rim.
George is projected to have 4.5 assists against Tyrese Haliburton & Co., allowing us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -183, but it's trading at -135 at bet365. Several sportsbooks will likely move this line to 4.5, so I'll provide both prices here. The same projection on the total of 4.5 allows us to price the Over at +115.
Paul George prop: Over 3.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: (Slightly) Down on Doncic
If you thought the Gilgeous-Alexander bet was going to be a tough one to pull the trigger on, can I interest you in an Under bet on Luka Doncic's assists prop? Doncic has exceeded this total in six of his last seven games, but he will be without a key player against the Denver Nuggets.
Dallas Mavericks rookie center Dereck Lively has already been ruled out, which means Doncic will be without his main lob threat. This is a significant loss for Doncic's assists prop because he excels at finding Lively for several easy helpers in each game.
This implies that Doncic will rely heavily on the Mavericks' shooters to convert his passes into assists with their 3-point shooting. When dealing with an inflated total and heavy juice on the Over, relying solely on 3-point shooting for assists is not ideal.
I have no issue with Doncic's total trading at 9.5. It should be given the way he is playing. His assists total was trading more in the 7.5 and 8.5 window earlier in the season. My concern with the pricing on this prop is the juice because I believe it should be flipped — plus money for the Over and increased juice on the Under. However, that's not the case, and that's why we're placing a bet.
Doncic is projected to have 9.5 assists on Monday, allowing us to price the Under 9.5 assists at -115. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 23%.
Luka Doncic prop: Under 9.5 assists (+130 at DraftKings)
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