The Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans will play the second game of the semifinal matchups in Las Vegas for the NBA In-Season Tournament on Thursday, and we have thoroughly analyzed all the NBA odds for this matchup to identify potential edges in the NBA player props.
LeBron James will be the focal point, as the NBA attempts to promote its biggest star in a tournament they desperately want to succeed. This means that the narratives around James will be robust and influential.
Additionally, considering the games are being played in Las Vegas and the NBA is discussing expansion — and James has made it clear that he would like to own a franchise — the spotlight on him is even more pronounced.
As the NBA releases all the James-related content they can think of, it will likely encourage bettors to wager on the Over for his points prop. I believe the sportsbooks took note of this when setting the lines. Find out why I'm betting on the Under on one of James's player props and more in our free NBA picks for Thursday, December 7.
For more of The King & Co., check out our LeBron James odds spotlight to go along with our Pelicans vs. Lakers predictions.
Best NBA player props today
- James Under 28.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
- McCollum Over 17.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
- McCollum Over 5.5 assists (-109 at Caesars)
Picks made on December 7 at 10:50 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for December 7
Prop bet #1: LeBron's line is too high
The narrative surrounding LeBron James on Thursday will draw many people looking to bet on the Over for James's points prop. The first-ever NBA In-Season Tournament semifinal game is taking place in Las Vegas, with a trip to the championship game on the line. James will be aiming to deliver a standout performance under the bright lights — that's what you're likely to hear.
I understand that perspective, and while I don't disagree, I present a total that is four to five points higher than where James has typically traded this season. The sportsbooks are acutely aware of James's impact, intending to compensate for how most NBA fans would react to his points prop in this specific game. For this reason, they have forced my hand into playing an Under bet on James' points prop.
Although James scored 31 points against the Phoenix Suns, he will face a much different challenge against the Pelicans. The Pelicans won't be using Eric Gordon to pick up James and allowing him to call for screens to get a switch onto Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic. James will have to contend with the 6-foot-7 wrecking ball of a defender in Herb Jones. With Jones as the primary defender on James, I believe you'll see James lean more toward being a facilitator and creator than a scorer.
James is projected to score 27.5 points on Thursday against the Pelicans, allowing us to price the under at 28.5 points at -130. If the total drops down to 27.5, the same projection on that line equals -110. Therefore, you can consider playing the Under at 27.5 points as well, as long as the juice is longer than -110.
LeBron James prop: Under 28.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: McCollum makes an impact
The Lakers have done an excellent job of integrating Cam Reddish into the starting lineup and allowing him to thrive as more of a three-and-D type of player. Reddish was all over Devin Booker on Tuesday and did not back down from the challenge.
The problem for the Lakers is that, while they can use Reddish and Taurean Prince on the perimeter as defenders, there will always be a weak point in their defense with D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves on the floor as well. Many teams don't have the personnel or offensive firepower to fully exploit this against the Lakers, but the Pelicans are an exception.
The Lakers will also have to contend with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the perimeter, and I'm certain both players are at the top of the defensive scouting report. This situation will leave Russell or Reaves on CJ McCollum, meaning McCollum will have an offensive advantage throughout the game. The Pelicans won't even need to create defensive switches to set him up for these advantages.
McCollum is projected to score 19.8 points against the Lakers, allowing us to price the Over 17.5 points at -155, but it is available at BetMGM at -110. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 16%.
CJ McCollum prop: Over 17.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #3: CJ sees court well
I've already highlighted the offensive advantage McCollum will have all night with either Russell or Reaves as his primary defender. But why am I targeting both his points prop and his assists prop? It's because the Pelicans will also aim to execute actions that result in a switch, putting Reaves or Russell on Williamson or Ingram.
As Reaves and Russell will be the primary defenders on McCollum, this means McCollum should be handling the ball extensively and initiating these actions. When the switch occurs, McCollum will be passing the ball to Ingram or Williamson in a favorable position, creating potential assists. If the Lakers rotate and send help to try and prevent Ingram or Williamson from catching the ball, McCollum will have open shooters on the perimeter, leading to more potential assists.
I anticipate a standout performance from McCollum against the Lakers on Thursday. He should be at the center of all the actions that the Pelicans are executing, surrounded by teammates capable of converting shots into assists off of these passes.
McCollum is projected to have 6.2 assists against the Lakers, allowing us to price the over 5.5 assists at -140, but it's available at Caesars at -109.
CJ McCollum prop: Over 5.5 assists (-109 at Caesars)
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