Pacers vs Celtics Prop Picks and Best Bets: McConnell Thrives as Help Option

Prop bet #1: TJ time

As long as Kristaps Porzingis is out for the Boston Celtics, we need to take a long, hard look at whether there is any value in the Over for any Indiana Pacers assists props. With T.J. McConnell trading at Over 4.5 (+120), I'm hitting the button.

With Porzingis out, the Celtics lack rim protection on the interior, making it much easier to convert potential assists around the rim. This series is much different from the Western Conference Finals, which has elite rim protection on both teams.

With McConnell coming off the bench, his matchups at the point of attack are much easier to take advantage of. Tyrese Haliburton has to deal with Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White on the court at the same time. But when McConnell is on the floor, the Celtics have already begun making substitutions, and Payton Pritchard typically becomes McConnell's primary defender. This is a much easier matchup for McConnell compared to what Haliburton faces, as he can easily break down Pritchard's defense and get into the lane to generate potential assists.

McConnell had only five potential assists in Game 1, but that came from 54 passes made, the second most on the team. McConnell averages 39.2 passes per playoff game, so the potential assists number might not stand out. However, if you're making that many passes and there's very limited rim protection on the defensive side, that number can easily climb.

McConnell is projected for 5.2 assists, which suggests the Over 4.5 assists should be priced at -141, yet it is available at Pinnacle for +120.

T.J. McConnell prop: Over 4.5 assists (+120 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Payton it forward

This is very similar to the McConnell bet, in that not only do the Celtics have limited rim protection, but so do the Pacers. Guards like Pritchard, who can break down the defense and weave into the lane, give added value in potential assists available.

In Game 1, Pritchard only had two assists on two potential assists, but when you watch the film, he was able to consistently get into the lane, and find open shooters, and they either didn't take the shot or they swung it for an extra pass. Pritchard's ability to create was very evident, he just wasn't rewarded for it in the box score.

The Celtics have made it clear that their goal is to hunt Haliburton and exploit his defensive weaknesses. Haliburton crossed over minutes with Pritchard in Game 1 and was the primary defender on him. This is a positive sign for Pritchard because it means the Celtics will make a conscious effort to put him on the ball and allow him to create offense when Haliburton is guarding him.

This prop also stands out because we only need 22 minutes from Pritchard to establish a nice edge on this number. In Game 1, Pritchard played 23 minutes, and the game script couldn't have been worse for a bench player. The game was extremely close, with the Celtics losing, and none of Boston's players were in foul trouble.

The Celtics have limited substitutions available to them, and with the Pacers constantly pushing the pace and playing around nine players themselves, Pritchard's minutes are relatively assured. To me, the 22 minutes is closer to Pritchard's floor than his ceiling, which makes me love this number even more for the Over on his assists prop.

Pritchard is projected to finish with 2.9 assists, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -123, but it is available at Pinnacle at +116.

Payton Pritchard prop: Over 2.5 assists (+116 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #3: Too much helium for Horford

Al Horford has been on a heater in his last two games, by his standards, scoring 22 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers and then 15 points in Game 1 against the Pacers. This little outburst has caused his points prop to move from 7.5 to 11.5, and with the four-point move to the Over, I'm going after the Under at -125.

First of all, a four-point move on a points total that is already so low is significant. This is a massive shift in probability for Horford. The Celtics center has shot 25 three-pointers in the last two games, which is a big reason why he has blitzed his points totals. The volume from beyond the arc is alarming when you're playing the Under on Horford's points, but at the same time, this is his only offense.

Horford is strictly a catch-and-shoot threat for the Celtics and doesn't generate his own offense. As the total begins to climb, those 3-pointers are essentially needed for Horford to get Over the number, and who knows if they will continue to be there. In the other four games against the Cavaliers, Horford only attempted 5.5 threes per game.

Another reason I favor the Under is Horford was consistently targeted on defense by the Pacers' offense. We have an edge on this number if Horford plays 34 minutes, which was his time before overtime in Game 1, but to me, there are several more scenarios where he sees below 34 minutes rather than above it.

Joe Mazzulla might opt for a smaller lineup to avoid the Pacers targeting the veteran big as much as they did in Game 1, and if the Celtics are covering the 9-point spread, there shouldn't be a rush to get Horford back in the game after his 40-minute stint in Game 1. Horford is 37 years old, and the Celtics are thinking big picture with how they structure their minutes.

Horford is projected to score 10.6 points, which allows us to price the Under 11.5 points at -156, but it is available at DraftKings at -125.

Al Horford prop: Under 11.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)