Playoff beatdowns don’t get any more humiliating than what the Indiana Pacers did to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday — and Tyrese Haliburton & Co. can punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals with a victory in tonight’s Game 5.
The Cavs limp into this must-win matchup with uncertainty around Donovan Mitchell’s ankle, plus the injuries that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are battling through, and that makes the Pacers a safer play for my NBA picks.
Here are my Top 3 Pacers vs. Cavaliers props for a May 13 contest that could send Cleveland into an uncomfortable offseason.
Best Pacers vs Cavaliers props
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Nembhard o11.5 pts (-125) - Siakam o9.5 rebs + asts (-115)
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Strus o7.5 3PAs (-120)
Pacers vs Cavaliers player props for May 13
Andrew Nembhard Over 11.5 points (-125 at bet365)
There are a few unsung heroes on this Indiana roster, but Andrew Nembhard might be at the top of the list. His two-way play has been huge in this series, and his points prop O/U line for Game 5 feels too low at 11.5.
Nembhard went past this number in the first two games at Rocket Arena, including 23 points in Game 1, and he’s looked comfortable running the offense when Haliburton sits. He’s been less of a factor offensively in the last two outings — both blowouts — but I see him stepping up here to quiet the desperate Cleveland Cavaliers.
Showing a real playoff gear, Nembhard has been a bigger factor in April and May after contributing just 10 PPG in the regular season. He averaged 15 PPG in the opening round against the Milwaukee Bucks while shooting 49% from the field and delivering 15+ points in four of the five contests.
The 3-ball will be the key to cashing this prop. Nembhard is making his triples at a 50% clip in this postseason, and he’s a lock for a few open looks off Haliburton drives.
Pascal Siakam Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)
It’s still a little jarring that the Indiana Pacers are 3-1 up in this series despite getting pedestrian production from Pascal Siakam. He was better in Game 4, making nine of his 10 shots, but he’s only averaging 17 PPG through the four contests against the Cavs.
I’m staying away from his points prop and targeting the Over on his rebounds + assists combo tonight. Siakam got there in the first two games in Cleveland, including eight boards and four dimes in Game 1, and Indiana will need a complete team effort to seal the series on the road.
This prop feels even better if the Cavs again lean towards smaller lineups. Jarrett Allen only logged 20 minutes on Sunday, and Siakam’s haul on the glass gets a boost when there’s less size in the paint. There’s every chance that he’s guarding wings for portions of Game 5, and he averaged almost 7.0 RPG in the regular season.
Spicy P has finished with 3+ assists in each of the past four contests, but it’s his rebounding that should tip the scales here.
Max Strus Over 7.5 3-point attempts (-120 at bet365)
With Mitchell and Garland hampered by injuries, Max Strus should have an even brighter green light to let fly tonight, so I love the Over on 7.5 3-point attempts.
Strus attempted 8+ 3-pointers in the first three games of this series, including 12 in Game 2, and he even jacked up seven triples in the weekend blowout.
I still expect the Pacers to emphasize slowing down the Cleveland guards here, so there’s no reason to think the good looks from downtown will dry up for Strus in Game 5, and he’s shown the confidence to keep gunning even during cold spells.
The Cavs looked broken at times on Sunday, falling behind 80-39 at halftime, but now they’re back at Rocket Arena with pride to restore and a series to save. Look for a high-volume Strus night as part of a much-improved effort from the hosts.
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