Nuggets vs Suns Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: More Struggles for Denver’s No. 2

Home court has held up in the Western Conference semifinal between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. Heading into Game 4 in Phoenix, the host team is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. That has the Suns laying a slim spread as favorites Sunday. 

After two losses in Denver, the Suns returned serve with a 121-114 victory at home in Game 3 fueled by the fourth-quarter star power of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. The pair combined for 86 of Phoenix’s 121 total points and found another gear in crunch time, making up for the injured Chris Paul.

I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 4 and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets at Suns on May 7.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 4 best odds

Nuggets vs Suns Game 4 picks and predictions

It’s been feast or famine for Jamal Murray so far in this series. 

The Denver Nuggets point guard opened this Western semifinal set with a 34-point performance in Game 1 followed by a 10-point egg in Game 2. Murray posted 32 points in Game 3 but still struggled with his shooting, going 13-for-39 from the floor including 1-for-6 from beyond the arc.

The Phoenix Suns drilled down on defending Murray during Saturday’s practice, with key perimeter defender Torrey Craig telling reporters that Phoenix plans to up the physicality when covering Denver’s dangerous point guard.

"Just be physical with him. Crowd him. Don’t let him get to his spots easy because he’s one of those guys if let him get in the groove, he can get it going,” Craig told the Arizona Republic.

"Our physicality out of the jump. Everybody who guarded him, being up in him, making him feel you coming off screens, making it hard to get catches, forcing him out," Craig added. "It may be a little thing, but it takes a lot of energy trying to get the basketball and trying to come off screens clean."

Murray, who averages 26.5 points so far in the NBA Playoffs, has a point prop of 24.5 (Under -122) after Game 3’s high-scoring showing. That’s smack in between his totals of 23.5 points for Games 1 and 3 and 25.5 for Game 2.

Game 4 player projections for Murray range from as low as 19.8 to as high as 22.3 but none come close to his prop total of 24.5 points for Sunday. I have him pegged for just over 21 points, with Phoenix playing rough and his shooting woes continuing on the road (16-for-44 from the floor, including 1-for-15 from 3-point land the past two games).

On the season, Murray saw his production dip away from Denver, scoring just under 20 points per road game on 44.3 shooting (vs. 20.7 ppg and 46.3% at home).

Shop around for the best price tag on the Under, with the vig ranging from -122 to -130 and some shops moving the total down to 23.5 after opening at 24.5 points.

My best bet: Jamal Murray Under 24.5 points (-122)

Nuggets vs Suns same-game parlay

Jamal Murray Under 24.5 points (-125)

Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points (-105)

Devin Booker Under 8.5 assists (-145)

+450 at DraftKings

Murray bears the brunt of the Suns’ defensive adjustments with a point total that’s inflated after a high-scoring, poor-shooting night. Aaron Gordon picks up the slack on the offensive end for Denver, with projection ceilings closer to 19 points and my number sitting at 17.7 points. Booker is needed to take and make shots for the Suns, leaving his assist production to drop. You could go Under 7.5 assists for a bigger payout at +600 with no models showing him dishing out more than seven dimes, but we’ll give the extra buffer at Under 8.5 after he totaled nine assists in Game 3. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 4 spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Game 4 opened as high as Phoenix -4 at some shops but has since come down to as low as -2.5 as of Sunday morning. The status of veteran point guard Chris Paul, who is listed as doubtful for Sunday, is the reason for the swing.

The Game 4 line is shorter than the closing number of Suns -4 for Game 3 (which opened -5.5). The Suns’ win was never truly cut and dry until the final frame when Phoenix’s two scoring studs took over. Booker and Durant made a collective 9-for-10 from the field in the fourth quarter with five points from the foul line, adding up to a total of 23 points in the closing 12 minutes.

The Nuggets also got big nights from their standouts in Game 3 with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray scoring 30 and 32 points, respectively. Despite the 30-point performance in Game 3, Murray is struggling from distance. He’s a collective 1-for-15 from beyond the arc the past two contests, including 1-for-6 in Game 3.

This Over/Under total hit the board at 227.5 points and has been all over the place in the hours since opening. Some books are dealing a total as low as 226.5 while others are up to 228.

That number is a tick higher than the closing total of 225 points for Game 3, which played Over with plenty of clearance (235 points scored) and more in line with the Over/Under totals from the two games in Denver (1-1 O/U).

Without Paul at the point, Phoenix has given the ball to the energetic Cam Payne and that has upped the tempo of this Suns offense. Phoenix went from a pace rating of 95.25 in the two games in Denver to a rating of 102 in Game 3 and scored 23 fastbreak points in the win after posting a collective 34 in the opening two contests.

Neither side is shooting well from beyond the arc, making a collective 19-for-58 from deep Friday. Phoenix is making only 26.8% of its attempts from beyond the 3-point line in the series while Denver is shooting just over 35% from long range the past three games.

According to BetMGM books, 62% of tickets and 72% of handle are grabbing the points with the Nuggets in Game 4 while 54% of bets are taking the Over vs. 57% of money riding on the Under.

Nuggets vs Suns betting trend to know

Favorites of less than three points are 8-3 SU and ATS so far in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark for home chalk of -2.5 or shorter. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Suns.

Nuggets vs Suns Game 4 game info

Nuggets vs Suns Game 4 key injuries

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