The Denver Nuggets will look to snap a three-game home losing streak when the struggling Dallas Mavericks come to town tonight.
Nikola Jokic has been phenomenal at home this season, and my Mavericks vs Nuggets predictions expect another productive performance tonight.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this matchup at Ball Arena on Monday, December 1.
Mavericks vs Nuggets prediction
Mavericks vs Nuggets best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is averaging 52.2 points + rebounds + assists per game this season, and he’s been better at home than on the road.
Joker has averaged 51.4 PRA per game on the road compared to 53.4 at home, and has hit the Over on this combo line in five of nine games at Ball Arena.
Over his last eight head-to-head matchups with Dallas Mavericks big Anthony Davis, he’s averaged 51 PRA, and he posted exactly 53 PRA in his last two home matchups with AD.
Dallas is middle-of-the-pack in points per game allowed, and the Mavs have surrendered the most rebounds to opponents this season. In a favorable matchup with the visiting Mavs, I’m counting on a big performance as Jokic leads Denver to a much-needed home victory.
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Mavericks vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Denver has lost three straight at home, but the Nuggets are fresh off a big win at Phoenix, and in a fantastic get-right spot against a struggling Mavericks team. Despite the recent losing streak, Denver sports a +11.4 point differential at home this season.
Denver has hit the Over in 12 of 19 games and four of its last five. The Nuggets have scored 126.6 points per game at home this season, and the Mavericks have scored 107.3 per game on the road. Over their last three road games, the Mavericks have averaged 111.7 points.
Mavericks vs Nuggets SGP
- Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Nuggets -11.5
- Over 233.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Brow-beaten
Davis has averaged just 35 PRA across his last two matchups with Nikola Jokic in Denver, and he posted 31+ PRA in just one of them. Davis is dealing with a calf injury and finished with just 22 PRA across 28 minutes in his last game out.
Mavericks vs Nuggets SGP
- Nikola Jokic Over 53.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Nuggets -11.5
- Over 233.5
- Anthony Davis Under 30.5 points+rebounds+assists
Mavericks vs Nuggets odds
- Spread: Mavericks +11.5 (-110) | Nuggets -11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mavericks +400 | Nuggets -550
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Mavericks vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 45 games at home (+17.00 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Monday, December 1, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFA, ALT |
Mavericks vs Nuggets latest injuries
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