Luka Doncic Odds and Props: Mavs Star Struggles For Buckets In Game 1

The NBA's Western Conference Finals get underway tonight and our NBA expert Jon Metler has you covered with Luka Doncic props and an SGP surrounding the Mavs superstar. Find out why he's taking Doncic Under points tonight below.

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst
May 22, 2024 • 14:38 ET • 4 min read
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
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Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will travel to Target Center on Wednesday for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find our best bet for a Doncic player prop.

We've all heard of Luka Magic before. Well, the Dallas Mavericks guard will need to make several miraculous shots to go Over his points total, which is set at 28.5.

That's why I'm adding the Under to my NBA Picks for Mavericks vs Timberwolves predictions on Wednesday, May 22. 

Luka Doncic prop picks for May 22

  • Luka Doncic Under 28.5 points (+116 at Pinnacle)
  • Doncic Under 28.5 points, Over 8.5 assists, Over 2.5 threes (+538 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Luka Doncic best bet

Luka Doncic pick: Under 28.5 points

When it comes to betting on a points prop for Luka Doncic, 28.5 isn't necessarily a high total. It's very normal to see Doncic trading north of 30 points, and against the Los Angeles Clippers, this number hovered around 33.5. However, against the defense of the Minnesota Timberwolves, I think this number is slightly too high, and I like the Under 28.5 points (+116) for Doncic on Wednesday.

Looking at this series and the matchup for Doncic, how will the Dallas Mavericks create an offensive advantage for him? The Timberwolves don't have just one individual defender who can match up with Doncic, whereas if the Mavericks can generate some switches, it could free him up. The Timberwolves can hit him with multiple defenders who have different skill sets, such as the positional size of Jaden McDaniels or the speed and harassment of Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

It's not just the individual defense but also the help defense. Doncic likes to methodically work his way into the lane and finish at the rim using his size, strength, and ability to decelerate. If Doncic gets by the point of attack defender, he then has to deal with multiple help defenders over 7 feet tall, including the Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, playing free safety as a shot blocker.

The Timberwolves having multiple solid perimeter defenders allows their help and team defense to focus on Doncic. Anthony Edwards, an excellent defender in his own right, has already stated he will be guarding Kyrie Irving. This means the Timberwolves don't need to send help Edwards' way, allowing them to focus all their attention on Doncic. 

Doncic won't be completely shut out; he will still score some points, but nothing will be easy for him in this series. If the Timberwolves team defense can choke off his ability to score at the rim, Doncic will have to rely on his jump shot. Typically, he has a size advantage and can shoot over the defender, but against the Timberwolves, that's not the case because McDaniels has a 7-foot wingspan. The crazy part is that might still be Doncic's best offense in this series.

For full disclosure, I bet the Under 29.5 points at -122 on FanDuel this morning, but at the time of this writing, that number has disappeared. The best available price now is the Under 28.5 points (+116) at Pinnacle. It's one point lower, but this bet has a higher expected value than what I bet on earlier this morning. Doncic is projected to score 28 points against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Under 28.5 points at -118, but it is available at Pinnacle at +116.

Prop: Luka Doncic Under 28.5 points (+116 at Pinnacle)

Luka Doncic same-game parlay

Doncic Under 28.5 points

Doncic Over 8.5 assists

Doncic Over 2.5 threes

In this series, I think you're going to see Doncic and Irving rack up potential assists to three-point shooters. If their teammates are making shots, they will go Over their assists totals. Doncic's usage will still be high, but it will be difficult for him to find quality shots, and he could be forced to be more of a facilitator of the offense. For that reason, I'm pairing the over 8.5 assists with the Under 28.5 points in our SGP.

On the surface, the third leg of Doncic Over 2.5 threes made with the Under 28.5 points doesn't make a lot of sense, but the inverse correlation also increases our odds accordingly. I don't think Doncic will go Over the 28.5 points because I don't think he will be able to generate any easy shots inside the arc against this Timberwolves defense. This could lead to Doncic settling for a lot of three-pointers. I'm going to use the alternate number of Over 2.5 threes made instead of the 3.5 because we obviously don't want him splashing too many from deep here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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