Knicks vs Hawks Win Probability for Game 3 at Prediction Markets

Kyle LaRusic - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Kyle LaRusic • Betting Analyst 5+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 23, 2026 , 10:04 AM ET • 4 min read

Prediction markets like Kalshi are siding with the New York Knicks as slight road favorites, and our Knicks vs. Hawks predictions couldn't agree more.

 Jalen Brunson (11) controls the ball against the Atlanta Hawks.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Jalen Brunson (11) controls the ball against the Atlanta Hawks.

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks head to Georgia to continue their first-round series, all knotted up at one game apiece.

Our Knicks vs. Hawks predictions and free NBA picks expect the visitors to take back the series lead on April 23.

Who will win Knicks vs Hawks Game 3?

Knicks win probability: 52% (-108)
Hawks win probability: 49% (+104)

Despite being the home team, the Atlanta Hawks are slight underdogs at 49¢, while the Knicks have a 52% chance of stealing a game on the road.

Our prediction: Knicks to win

New York let Game 2 get away with turnovers and missed free throws, sparking Atlanta’s rally from 12 points down entering the fourth quarter. The Knicks can’t give the Hawks hope. They’ve done a good job checking Atlanta’s top scorers and will clean up their mess in Game 3.

Read more in Jason Logan's full Knicks vs. Hawks predictions.

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More Knicks vs Hawks prediction markets

You're certainly not limited to the main game outcome for Knicks vs. Hawks at Kalshi; you also have options to trade on the spread, total, and more, among other NBA odds markets.

You can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on the Knicks -1.5 spread means the Knicks will cover, while "No" means the Hawks will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter).

Knicks vs Hawks spread and total at prediction markets

Outcome Yes No
Knicks -1.5 49¢ (+104) 52¢ (-108)
Over 216.5 points 50¢ (+100) 51¢ (-104)

Our predictions: Knicks -1.5 — Yes and Over 216.5 points — No

The Knicks will cut down on their mistakes in Game 3 and win by at least a bucket. Both games have gone Under tonight's total, and both teams will do enough on D to stay Under 216.5 points.

Other Knicks vs Hawks prediction markets available

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Hawks win tonight?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.

Why should I wager on Knicks vs Hawks at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

  1. Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.

  2. Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.

  3. Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.

  4. Availability: Kalshi is available in 49 states (excluding Nevada) and D.C., including many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

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Kyle LaRusic - Covers
Betting Analyst

Kyle LaRusic joined Covers in 2020 with a Holland College diploma in Journalism and a Mount Saint Vincent Degree in Public Relations. Stints at Amherst News and the Cape Breton Post helped sharpen his skills in a newsroom setting, while working for MSVU and Dalhousie’s athletic departments landed Kyle in his comfort zone.

Kyle has been an avid bettor for over five years, starting with just one Sports Interaction account before discovering both the beauty and importance of price shopping. bet365 and Pinnacle are his go to books, but accounts at 10+ sportsbooks give him an array of options. “Rusty” will bet on anything under the sun as long as there’s value and good reasoning behind it, but NHL and NFL are his two favorite leagues to watch and wager on — especially with friends.

Kyle’s biggest tip for any bettor is simple: gamble responsibly. Only bet what you’re willing to lose and make sure to install a proper bankroll method to keep track of your ROI. If you’re still dwelling on the amount you lost the next day, it’s time to decrease your spending.

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