Knicks vs Hawks Props & NBA Playoffs Game 6 Best Bets

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst 18+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 30, 2026 , 01:13 PM ET • 4 min read

Farmer's predictions: Knicks' Game 5 model could end this series in 6.

Karl-Anthony Towns New York Knicks NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Karl-Anthony Towns corrals a rebound in Game 5 against the Atlanta Hawks.

The Atlanta Hawks have not only squandered a 2-1 series lead, but they have been blown out in the last two games against the New York Knicks.

Those routs create rather distinct Atlanta doubt in these Knicks vs. Hawks player props and NBA picks on Thursday, April 30.

Best Knicks vs Hawks props for Game 6

Player Pick bet365
Knicks Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 rebounds +102
Hawks Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 17.5 points -112
Hawks CJ McCollum Under 3.5 assists -130

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Game 6 Prop #1: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 12.5 rebounds

+102 at bet365

The best-shooting center in NBA history has not lost his shot, not by any means. Karl-Anthony Towns has gone 8-of-17 from deep in this series, 47.1%. But taking only 3.4 shots from beyond the arc per game is a worry both for Towns and for the New York Knicks.

More worrying, Towns has taken only eight three-pointers in the last three games. Then again, he has snagged double-digit rebounds in each of the last three games.

Towns recognizes this is the rare matchup where his best advantage comes not on the perimeter against a sluggish big, but in the frontcourt against the undersized Atlanta Hawks. Grabbing 13.7 rebounds per game in the last three games emphasizes that edge.

Game 6 Prop #2: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 17.5 points

-112 at bet365

Even when the Hawks were leading this series, Nickeil Alexander-Walker was not pouring in the points. The Most Improved Player of The Year has not cleared this prop yet in five games in this series.

Even when Alexander-Walker went a combined 9-of-19 from beyond the arc in Games 4 and 5, he still scored only 15 and 16 points.

NAW averaged 15.3 shots per game this regular season. That has fallen to 12.6 per game in this series.

Some of that is a credit to Alexander-Walker; he is more focused defensively than on getting his own shot. But regardless of the reason, the drop has not been properly accounted for by oddsmakers.

Game 6 Prop #3: CJ McCollum Under 3.5 assists

--130 at bet365

Perhaps CJ McCollum caught the Knicks by surprise? That would obviously be reprehensible from the New York coaching staff, given McCollum is one of the best shooting guards of his generation and has always been ready to score 30 points on no notice. But perhaps?

He opened the series averaging 27 points per game while taking 20.3 shots per game through the first three games, when Atlanta opened up a 2-1 series lead.

But now that the Knicks coaching staff has been faced with a harsh reminder of his abilities, it is emphasizing getting the ball out of McCollum’s hands. He took only 25 shots total in the last two games.

One might think that leads to assists, but the ball is simply not finding any openings via McCollum. He dished out three assists in Game 4 and then just one in Game 5. Across this whole series, he has cleared this modest prop only once and has averaged 2.4 assists per game.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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