Heat vs Knicks Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Barrett to Bosses Miami at MSG

Nobody — not oddsmakers, not the media, not even the fans — expected this series. But here we are, with a rematch of the famous 90s wars between the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks in the second round of the playoffs, with the winner headed to the Eastern Conference Finals. It all begins with a matinee game at Madison Square Garden this afternoon.

Jimmy Butler and the Heat should be brimming with confidence after summarily dispatching the championship-favorite Milwaukee Bucks. Jalen Brunson and the Knicks gradually broke the Cavaliers by playing classic Tom Thibodeau basketball, transforming into the playoffs' best defense and dominating the rebounding battle. This might be the lowest-scoring series of the second round, but don’t mistake it for being a battle of unskilled teams.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Knicks Game 1 believe RJ Barrett made a leap against Cleveland that should carry over into this matchup against Miami.

Heat vs Knicks Game 1 best odds

Heat vs Knicks Game 1 picks and predictions

RJ Barrett’s decision-making made the leap against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the quarterfinals. While Mitchell Robinson’s dominance on the glass and Jalen Brunson’s isolation scoring got the headlines, Barrett’s play is how the Knicks managed to upend the favored Cavs in just five games.

Tom Thibodeau always says that RJ’s key to success is shot selection, and Barrett picked his spots between scoring and passing better against the Cavs than at any point in his young career.

Barrett came into the NBA a comically left-hand dominant player, and while he’s worked diligently to develop his right hand, opposing teams always work to send him right. He’s fought against that pressure in the past, working to find his way back left even when attacking right provided the superior angle to the rim. But he trusted his right hand on drives against Cleveland, and it sped up his process considerably.

The Heat actually have less rim protection than the Cavs did. That Barrett was able to carve up Cleveland bodes well for his chances against Miami, as Bam Adebayo and Kevin Love will be so paranoid about losing the battle to Robinson on the glass that they’ll be on the back foot against Barrett’s drives.

Julius Randle is currently doubtful to play on Sunday after spraining the same ankle in Game 5 that saw him limited in the first round. That means Barrett is the No. 2 option behind Brunson. In all likelihood, Brunson is going to be defended by Jimmy Butler. That leaves RJ going against Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, or Caleb Martin. With the exception of Martin, those guys aren’t big or strong enough to contain Barrett’s preferred offensive game: slashing to the basket.

In the past, Barrett had one mindset on drives: score first, score second, score last. It made him predictable and easy to defend, and contributed to one of the worst finishing rates on drives of any NBA player.

He made quick decisions with the ball against Cleveland. Many thought RJ would struggle against a defense that likes to clog the paint but, he made the game look easy. The Knicks also tapped into Brunson and Barrett pick and rolls to a degree they never had before. With the Heat likely to trap Brunson at times, that will leave Barrett at his best, attacking a bent defense with the ball in his hands.

Barrett has struggled against the Heat in the past (the notable exception being his career-high 46-point outburst against them last season) because of their tendency to go zone. But the way Barrett played in the first round is tailor-made to disrupt a zone defense. He’s attacking in transition before defenses get set, or driving and drawing help before making the pass to the open shooter on the wing.

Beating a zone isn’t just about shooting, and I believe Barrett’s newfound drive and kick game should see him have a productive and effective Game 1.

My best bet: Barrett Over 21.5 points + assists (-108)

Heat vs Knicks Game 1 spread analysis

This should be an incredibly close series, and Game 1 should be no different. The Heat have been one of the best offenses in the playoffs, which all the more impressive given that they did it against the Milwaukee Bucks and that they’re doing this without Tyler Herro.

The Heat will not rattle under the bright lights of MSG like the Cavs did, and the Knicks are going to have to hit shots and make smart adjustments to deal with Butler and a Miami team that has suddenly rediscovered its shooting touch.

But the Knicks won’t let Butler off the hook like the Bucks did. It sounds incredible to say that a team with three of maybe the best 10 defenders in the NBA did a poor job on Butler, but they did. The Knicks simply will not allow Butler to go one-on-one as a primary initiator all game long. They’ll double, they’ll blitz, they’ll hard hedge, and they’ll cheat off any non-Robinson perimeter shooter to show him bodies in the lane. 

Josh Hart should be Butler's primary defender, and statistically was Butler’s toughest matchup this season. Hart was key in taking Donovan Mitchell out of the Cavs series.

Julius Randle’s health also looms large. Randle is one of the Knicks' best scorers, rebounders, and facilitators. While the Cavaliers did a great job defending Randle, the Heat don’t have two defensive-minded bigs like the Cavs did. The Heat will likely matchup Love and Bam against Robinson and Randle.

The Knicks' +8.2-point differential in the playoffs is second only to the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Heat will have the best player and the superior coach. I think the Knicks are a better overall team, but until I see Randle in action, I can’t recommend betting the spread.

Heat vs Knicks Game 1 Over/Under analysis

The biggest story of the first round, outside of Butler’s superstar play, was the Heat suddenly remembering how to shoot. Miami shot 45% from three as a team in Round 1, after shooting just 34.9% during the regular season. If they keep that level of efficiency up, the Over will cash.

The Heat’s shooting opened up the floor, allowing Butler (and to a lesser extent, Bam) to attack in space inside. If that shooting doesn’t carry over at a comparable level, the Heat offense could crash back to earth. This was the league’s 25th-ranked offense during the regular season.

All five of the Knicks’ first round games saw the Under cash even as the totals were set lower and lower. The Knicks were a middling defense in the regular season, but have been the best defensive team by a mile in the postseason so far. They were so effective because they forced Cleveland’s more limited offensive players to beat them, and they couldn’t. Adebayo is a much better passer out of the short roll than the Cleveland bigs, but he’s still bad at punishing mismatches as a scorer.

The Knicks have traditionally struggled with zone defense, which Miami is better at playing than perhaps any other team in the NBA. But zone defense also makes the opposing team vulnerable to offensive rebounding, and that’s how the Knicks will try to score. I’d lean towards the Over slightly at 207.5, mostly because it’s hard to imagine Butler and the Heat struggling quite as much as Cleveland did against this Knicks defense.

Heat vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Knicks' last five overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Knicks.

Heat vs Knicks Game 1 game info

Heat vs Knicks Game 1 key injuries

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