Golden State Warriors Odds to Make Playoffs: Draymond Holds the Key to Warriors Playoff Hopes

This is the way a dynasty ends, not with a bang but a whimper.

That may be the fate awaiting the Golden State Warriors if they cannot find their way into the playoffs this year. Klay Thompson will be a free agent after this season, and contract negotiations were tense with the future Hall of Famer even before he struggled through much of this season.

Draymond Green’s availability is always in question, suspended twice this season. When he plays well, Green still raises the Warriors’ ceiling to contention levels. When he self-destructs, Green throws the entire franchise into chaos and brings the Warriors NBA odds with it.

That may determine Golden State’s spring even more than Steph Curry will, a spring that could stretch deep into the postseason or could fall short of their NBA Title odds. Where should you put your money on the Golden State Warriors’ playoff hopes?

Golden State Warriors odds to make playoffs

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on February 21, 2024

Golden State Warriors season at a glance

Draymond Green taketh away. Draymond Green giveth.

The Golden State Warriors were off to a decent enough start to the season, 6-5 and No. 7 in the Western Conference, before Green put Rudy Gobert in a chokehold to get ejected less than two minutes into a mid-November game. They lost that night and in three of the five games Green was subsequently suspended, not coincidentally falling to 10th in the West.

Green returned to the lineup and, quite frankly, looked out of place. Apparently being reprimanded for choking an opponent disrupted his usual understanding of the game. Obviously, that is said somewhat in jest, but Green posted a net negative 30 plus/minus in six games back in the lineup. The Warriors lost four of them.

Then he got into it with Jusuf Nurkic during a loss to the Suns. Another suspension followed. Golden State treaded water, going 8-7 without Green, but cratering to No. 12 in the Western Conference.

But upon returning from that extended absence, Green began giving.

Since Green’s return, the Warriors’ defensive rating has ranked No. 7 in the NBA at 113.5, compared to No. 24 at 117.7 in the 39 games beforehand. Their offensive rating has also shot up, to No. 1 in the league at 121.1 from No. 13, 116.7.

Klay Thompson may still be struggling — 16.8 points on 40.9 percent shooting including a worrisome 32.7 percent from beyond the arc — but Green’s defensive expertise combined with Jonathan Kuminga’s surge and Stephen Curry’s consistency has turned Golden State into a sudden force.

The worry for the Warriors is simple: Did Green take away too much before this rally? Did he dig too deep a hole for what may be the final year of the Splash Brothers?

Will Golden State Warriors make the playoffs?

First of all, a clarification, the Play-In Tournament does not count as the playoffs. To cash a “Yes” bet here, the Warriors would need to play in a best-of-seven round.

With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, based on opponent winning percentages, Golden State should be able to make up some ground in these next seven weeks. Even now, it is clear of missing the Play-In Tournament by 2.5 games, with the Jazz headed in the wrong direction.

There should be no worry about that. NBA fans will get to see Steph Curry dazzle in a single-elimination moment in the Play-In Tournament.

Well, maybe not. Not if the Warriors can catch both the Lakers and the Kings to reach the No. 8 seed and then be in the double-elimination side of the Play-In bracket.

That is a bold thought, with Golden State 3.5 games behind Sacramento, but could that be close enough? The Warriors went 9-5 since Green’s most recent return. Suggest that same winning rate across their remaining 29 games and Golden State would finish the season 46-36. The Kings would need to go just 15-13 to stay ahead of the Warriors.

Okay, Golden State is probably too far behind to climb out of the single-elimination bracket, partly because it has already gone 2-2 against Sacramento this season and is likely to lose the next tiebreaker, division standings.

Then the math becomes more simple.

The Warriors would need to win a game against, most likely, the Lakers before winning another game in the Play-In Tournament. As discussed earlier this week in pondering the postseason hopes for Los Angeles, that initial game can be conservatively deemed a pick’em, setting the Golden State moneyline at +100 in this exercise.

With the Warriors a certain road underdog in the second game of the Play-In Tournament, if they even were to beat the Lakers, betting them on the moneyline in both legs of the postseason entry bracket would create more value than betting on the “Yes” in this market.

The “No” in this market may be less fun, it may come across as doubting Steph Curry, it may be at a slight premium, but it is the logical play. Draymond Green dug too deep a hole for Golden State to realistically escape the 9-10 game in the Play-In Tournament, and as long as the “No” odds on those teams remain short of -150 or even -160, then there is too much value in them to spurn.

Best Bet: Warriors to miss the playoffs (-134 at FanDuel)

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