Clippers vs Suns Game 2 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Phoenix Spread Gets Clipped

Somebody forgot to tell Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers that they’re the underdogs. While almost universally picked by media members and oddsmakers to make short work of an L.A. team missing an injured Paul George, the Phoenix Suns dropped a Game 1 on Sunday for just the first time in the Monty Williams era.

Now Phoenix finds itself facing an improbably early must-win game on Tuesday, April 18, against a Clippers team that looks more in sync with one another than it has all season.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 2 of Clippers vs. Suns are forecasting another nailbiter on Tuesday, with value lying on betting LA to keep things tight.

Clippers vs Suns Game 2 best odds

Clippers vs Suns Game 2 picks and predictions

This is a playoff series that has everything. While some might favor the pace and excitement of the I-80 series or the physicality of some of the Eastern Conference matchups, Game 1 of the Los Angeles Clippers vs. the Phoenix Suns was my personal favorite game of the playoffs to date. Reason being that both teams' stars gave tremendous efforts, and both coaches are already reaching deep in their bags to eke out any small advantage they can find. Because when the very best teams play in the playoffs, games are won and lost at the margins.

The Suns came in -7.5 favorites for Sunday's game, the same margin most oddsmakers are giving them for Game 2. With that wide a spread, I like what I saw from the Clippers enough to back L.A. to cover, even accounting for the likely Game 2 rubber-band effect in favor of Phoenix.

So, what lessons can we take away from Game 1 that leave me feeling better about LA’s chances in this game and going forward? 

For one, the Clippers have a clear coaching and cohesion advantage. It’s funny to say about an L.A. team that has become synonymous with the perils of load management, but the Suns rolled into the playoffs with only eight games played with this current group. Despite going 8-0, the Suns didn’t play any team of L.A.’s quality in that time, and they were a bit shell-shocked by some of the wrenches Ty Lue threw at them. The Clippers knew their assignments and roles much better than the Suns, and while Phoenix failed to find Kevin Durant for large stretches of the game, the Clippers' hierarchy was effective and clear.

Lue also had the Clippers mixing up their defensive assignments, going from traditional matchups to ones where Kawhi Leonard guarded the Phoenix big (usually Deandre Ayton). Kawhi was then able to switch any pick and roll involving the Suns' big man, and Ivica Zubac was left guarding Torrey Craig. The Clippers dared Craig to be a high-volume perimeter shooter in favor of packing the paint and getting every defensive board. But crucially, Lue never stuck with any one alignment for too long, leading to hesitation by Suns players trying to run sets only to be facing a different matchup than they expected.

Lue also had the Clippers run a ton of action featuring back cuts and screen-the-screener action, basically, anything that forced multiple Suns players to make decisions. Russell Westbrook made hay out of the pick and roll, and when multiple screeners were involved, the Suns weren’t always sure when to switch and when to stick to their man, conceding a lot of easy baskets. The Suns will no doubt clean some of that up, but a one-day layoff can only take a team that has zero experience playing high-leverage games together so far.

Another reason to favor the Clippers is that the Suns' bench is looking dangerously thin. With Cameron Payne a late scratch ahead of Game 1 (and status uncertain for Game 2) only six Suns players played 10 minutes or more, which meant that the Suns' stars put in absurd minute totals for a Game 1, with Devin Booker and Durant playing a combined 88 out of a possible 96 collective minutes. 

By contrast, the Clippers had nine players in the rotation at 10 minutes or above, with only Kawhi (41 minutes) eclipsing 36 total minutes. Monty Williams seemed to be pushing a lot of buttons by going to a scattershot selection of his bench players, but never found any combination that remotely worked. The Clippers bench ultimately outscored Phoenix 34-10.

Lastly, the Clippers beat the Suns up on the boards. Ayton routinely got outmuscled by Zubac and Mason Plumlee, and while Westbrook had a nightmare shooting game, he punished the Suns on the offensive glass as well. All told, L.A. had 14 critical offensive rebounds to swing the possession game in their favor, a formula they’re well suited to continue into Game 2. As Pat Riley once famously quipped: “no rebounds, no rings.”

While L.A. is shorter on top-end talent, it’s full of capable contributors up and down the roster. With a clear edge in depth, game plan, and continuity, I think the Clips are a good bet to make the Suns sweat Game 2 right down to the wire.

My best bet: Clippers +7.5 (-101 at Pinnacle)

Clippers vs Suns Game 2 spread analysis

There’s every reason to think the Suns will play better on Tuesday. Historically, most series favorites come back to win Game 2 when dropping the first game at home. But there are also a lot of reasons to believe their margin for error is much smaller than the futures markets for this series projected. 

Consider this: The Clippers shot a worse percentage from the field, committed more turnovers, and conceded 25 fast break points while managing just 12 of their own. Even with all that in their favor, the shot diet of the Suns — even bolstered by an unusually strong foul-drawing game — makes the math hard for Phoenix. 

The Suns only took 19 threes in Game 1, tied for the third-fewest in any game over the previous four NBA playoffs per Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic. That’s not an aberration either, it’s just the way the Suns play. Phoenix had the worst location-effective shooting percentage of any team in the NBA this season per Cleaning the Glass, and adding Durant makes them more midrange-happy if anything.

While both teams took a high percentage of their shots from the midrange, in contrast to the Clippers, who found a lot of looks closer to the basket, the Suns took 27% of their shots from the analytically-dreaded long-midrange area. Even with their talent advantage, a 7.5-point line is too much for a Suns team that starts every game with such a structural disadvantage.

Clippers vs Suns Game 2 Over/Under analysis

The total for Tuesday comes in at 225.5, or almost exactly the total of Sunday’s contest (115-110). Neither team shot particularly well, so a rebound shooting performance by either squad could auger an Over, but the defenses were also unusually stout for the beginning of a playoff series.

The Clippers ended up ranked as only the 18th-best defense in the regular season, but that number is a bit deceiving. This is a team that struggled to motivate itself for long stretches of the year but showed at times the ability to play Top-5 level defense, which they were for much for the season before the new year. They looked plenty motivated in Game 1.

L.A. did a good job of baiting the Suns into low-efficiency shots. Phoenix has a trio of players in Chris Paul, Durant, and Booker who can make teams pay from those spots, but you’d still rather concede those than shots at the rim or threes all things being equal (and plenty of Phoenix role players were goaded into the same shots to much worse results for the offense). I expect Phoenix to do a better job of blitzing Kawhi and forcing the other Clippers players to beat them as well. Until I see more from this Phoenix offense, I’d lean Under.

Clippers vs Suns betting trend to know

Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six first-round games. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs Suns.

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