The Toronto Raptors have some demons when facing good teams this season.
They’ve made a habit of coughing up leads late. For example, they held a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter and lost the last time they played the Minnesota Timberwolves on February 4.
My Raptors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks break down if Toronto can exercise some of those demons at the Target Center in what should be a low-scoring game on Thursday, March 5.
Raptors vs Timberwolves prediction
Raptors vs Timberwolves best bet: Under 225.5 (-110)
For whatever reason, the Toronto Raptors are coming up short in big games, but strong defense has been a staple, which has me looking at the Under tonight vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves.
It’s a matchup of two Top-10 defenses, with one of the Raptors’ strengths being their 3-point defense. They allow the fifth-lowest percentage in the NBA, which is important against a T-wolves team that ranks 11th in made threes per game.
Combine that with the Raps’ inconsistent scoring, and it’s no surprise that Toronto has been one of the better Under bets in the NBA at 24-37 O/U.
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Raptors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Minnesota has been great defensively this season, ranking ninth in defensive rating and seventh in opponent effective field goal percentage.
That means missed shots, and Toronto ranks 18th in rebounding rate, so give me the Over on Rudy Gobert’s rebounds.
Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards was a menace when these two teams last played, nabbing three steals, and he's topped 1.5 steals in seven of his last 11 games. I’ll take the Over at plus money.
Raptors vs Timberwolves SGP
- Under 22.5.5
- Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds
- Anthony Edwards Over 1.5 steals
Our "from downtown" SGP: Big-man battle
This matchup between Gobert and Jakob Poeltl could be a big key to this game, and a double-double is on the table for both.
Raptors vs Timberwolves SGP
- Rudy Gobert double-double
- Jakob Poeltl double-double
Raptors vs Timberwolves odds
- Spread: Raptors +4.5 | Timberwolves -4.5
- Moneyline: Raptors +170 | Timberwolves -205
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Raptors vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Raptors have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games for +11.40 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Raptors vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Thursday, March 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, FDSN North |
Raptors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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