76ers vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Dallas' Defense Does it Again

Dallas has been locked in on defense lately, and matches up tonight with a team that joins it among the NBA's slowest. Find out why we're in for a deliberate grind as we preview this Lone Star showdown with our 76ers vs. Mavericks picks.

Last Updated: Feb 4, 2022 9:33 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off of a bad home loss to the Bradley Beal-less Washington Wizards, so they’ll be eager to get back in the win column against a Dallas Mavericks team that has won two games in a row. 

Will Philadelphia roll into Texas and pick up a massive victory on Friday? Check out our Sixers vs. Mavericks NBA picks and predictions for February 4 if you’re looking for action on this one. 

76ers vs Mavericks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mavericks opened as 1-point favorites in this home game against the Sixers, but you can get this game as a pick’em, and you can also find Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite. It’s a little all over the place, but the early action is on Philadelphia. The total, meanwhile, can be found as low as 210 and as high as 213.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

76ers vs Mavericks predictions

Predictions made on 2/4/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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76ers vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Friday, February 4, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

76ers vs Mavericks betting preview

Injuries

76ers: Furkan Korkmaz G (Out), Seth Curry G (Questionable), Shake Milton G (Out), Ben Simmons F (Out).
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis F (Out), Sterling Brown G (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. (Out).

Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a straight-up loss. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Mavericks.

76ers vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Mavericks are going to be missing Porzingis’ ability to defend and space the floor in this meeting with Joel Embiid and the Sixers, but Dallas still has enough to get the job done here. Jason Kidd’s group is fifth in the league in defensive rating this season, and the team is particularly good at scrambling and getting hands up on three-point shots. That’s an important skill to have when facing a dominant post player like Embiid, especially when they’re going to have to be sending help in his direction on occasion. 

On offense, Luka Doncic is going to have his work cut out for him with Matisse Thybulle on the other team, but there aren’t many players in the league that can actually shut the Dallas star down. Even if it’s less efficient than normal, Doncic will get his buckets and find ways to set others up. And Jalen Brunson, one of the most underappreciated players in basketball, will do his part to help take pressure off the Slovenian. Brunson might be small and unathletic, but he is good at getting downhill and is a crafty mid-range scorer. He could have a big impact on this game, and the Mavericks will be counting on him to outperform a guy like Tyrese Maxey. 

This is also a game in which the Dallas crowd will be coming out with a lot of energy, which can’t be ignored in a matchup between two teams that are evenly matched. The Mavericks will feed off the noise and that should be huge. 

Prediction: Mavericks PK (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under in this game is definitely set a little low for comfort, but it still looks like the right play here. Not only are the Mavericks the fifth-ranked team in defensive rating this season, but the Sixers are also 10th in the league in that category. On top of that, Dallas is 29th in the league in pace of play on the year and Philadelphia isn’t much faster at 27th. Both of these teams really like to take their time, and they each take defense very seriously. 

The Under happens to be 10-3 in the 13 games that Philadelphia has played with a line between +3 and -3 on the year, which means that these games that are supposed to be close tend to be grind-it-out affairs with the Sixers. The Mavericks are on the same page there, as the Under is 16-8-1 in that same situation. 

The Under is also 15-5 when Philadelphia has played as an underdog this season. 

Prediction: Under 213.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Mavericks are 8-0 against the spread in home games in which they’ve been favored by six or fewer points since Kidd became the team’s head coach, and they’ve won those games by an average of 11.1 points per game. Sure, not having Porzingis in a big game like this is less than ideal, but this is a Dallas team that truly embodies the “next man up” mentality. Guys like Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell are capable of picking up the slack in Porzingis’ absence, which is part of the reason you can still trust Dallas here. 

This Mavericks team also happens to be 28-15 against the spread when coming off a loss in which they were favored over the last three seasons, so Dallas normally bounces back from let-down performances. 

It’s also worth noting that the Sixers are 13-31 straight-up and 18-25-1 against the spread as road underdogs over the last three seasons. 

Pick: Mavericks PK (-110)

NBA parlays

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