76ers vs Bucks Picks: Bucks Outrun Wounded Predator

Jrue Holiday had only 12 points on 12 shots when Milwaukee faced Philadelphia two nights ago, and should be more aggressive tonight, especially in the likely case that Ben Simmons sits.

Apr 24, 2021 • 12:30 ET
Jrue Holiday NBA Milwaukee Bucks
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Philadelphia 76ers 124-117 Thursday night, but the two will meet again on Saturday, April 24 in NBA betting action. This game will be played at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and it tips at 3:30 p.m. ET. 

Will Milwaukee take care of business in a second consecutive meeting with Philadelphia? Find out in our Sixers vs. Bucks picks and predictions. 

76ers vs Bucks odds

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NBA sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

This line hasn't budged since hitting DraftKings' odds board late Friday night, with Milwaukee opening -7.5 and remaining there as of 12:30 p.m. ET today. Even the juice hasn't moved off -110. Underdog Philadelphia is taking 76 percent of tickets and 70 percent of money on the spread. The total is down to 227.5 from a 230.5 opener, with 54 percent of tickets on the Over and 82 percent of dollars on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

76ers at Bucks betting preview

Injuries

76ers: C Joel Embiid (Questionable), G Ben Simmons (Doubtful), G Furkan Korkmaz (Questionable). 
Bucks: No injuries to report. 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last five games.  Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Bucks.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Sixers and Bucks met two nights ago, when Milwaukee came away with a seven-point victory. Joel Embiid was just 9 for 21 from the floor in that game, but he did have 24 points in only 27 minutes of action. Now, Embiid is dealing with a shoulder injury, leaving his status up in the air for this one. Without Embiid, the Sixers would struggle to generate enough offense to keep up, as the team is very likely to be without Ben Simmons again. Tobias Harris is still going to be out there for Philadelphia, but he’s a lot better as a third option than he is as a first. 

Even if Embiid does play, the Bucks present a number of challenges for the Sixers. One of those problems is that Brook Lopez is actually well-equipped to make things difficult on Embiid. He knows how to use verticality to make Embiid take tough shots, and he also is one of the best stretch bigs in the game, which pulls Embiid away from the basket on the defensive end. Embiid is an elite rim protector, so that gives Milwaukee some serious advantages. Nobody can stop Giannis Antetokounmpo on a good day, but it’s impossible when the lane is open for him. He and Khris Middleton combined to score 51 points the last time these teams played, and they just might go for more here. 

Milwaukee should also continue to get better as Donte DiVincenzo finds his rhythm again. DiVincenzo hasn’t scored in double figures in each of the last four games, but it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting some shots. 

PREDICTION: Bucks -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under pick

These teams combined to score 241 points just a few nights ago, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they hit something close to that number again. Last time out, Harris, Embiid and Danny Green combined to shoot 0 for 6 from the three-point line. That likely won’t happen again here. Also, the Bucks should get a better offensive performance out of Jrue Holiday, who will likely be more aggressive than he was in Thursday’s game. 

PREDICTION: Over 229.5 (-110) 

Player prop pick

As previously mentioned, we’ll likely see a more aggressive version of Holiday in this game. Simmons was out for the Sixers last time out, and Holiday only had 12 points on 12 shots.

Considering Simmons is one of the best defensive players in basketball, Holiday should be a little more excited about not having to face him. He didn’t take advantage of that last time, but it was a blowout. If this one is just a bit closer, the Bucks will turn to Holiday as more of a scorer. That makes this a good value. 

PREDICTION: Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points (-113) 

76ers vs Bucks betting card

  • Bucks -7.5 (-110) 
  • Over 229.5 (-110)
  • Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points (-113) 

Picks made on 4/24/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET

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