Playoff pressure turns to the Magic Mile on Sunday, as NASCAR’s best head to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the 2025 Mobil 1 301. With a spot in the Round of 8 on the line, expect a strategic battle on this flat, technical one-mile oval.
Track history, recent performance, and playoff urgency influence all the NASCAR race picks and free betting picks for Sunday, September 21. Set for 2:00 p.m. ET on USA Network, New Hampshire is renowned for its tough passing, tire management, and late-race drama.
The field’s elite, like Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, have carved out winning records here, but rising stars add chaos to the mix just in time for another playoff elimination. Below are the most data-driven NASCAR predictions for the Mobil 1 301.
NASCAR prop picks for Mobil 1 301
- Top 3 Finish: Bell (-125)
- Top 3 Finish: Hamlin (+160)
- Top 5 Finish: Briscoe (+125)
NASCAR Mobil 1 301 props and best bets
Top 3 Finish: Christopher Bell (-125 at bet365)
Bell’s nickname in the garage is “The Magic Mile Master” for a reason—he’s won twice at New Hampshire since 2022, including last summer’s chaotic overtime shootout, and the data backs up his lead role in this week's racing affair:
- 🎯 Bell owns the best average finish at New Hampshire among Cup regulars (7.7 in the last six starts) and heads into Sunday ranked fourth in playoff points—momentum and experience in one package.
- 💨 He led over 100 laps in three of his last four New Hampshire starts, a testament to long-run speed on flat pavement.
- Already in form, Bell started the Round of 12 with a win at Darlington, confirming his playoff nerves and race strategy.
Bell should be closer to -175 for a Top 3 and is notably undervalued in the market. If the No. 20 Toyota qualifies up front, Bell’s odds for a podium finish become even stronger, making -125 a more chewable price.
Top 3 Finish: Denny Hamlin (+160 at bet365)
Hamlin thrives with pressure, and New Hampshire’s tight layout fits his driving style perfectly—he’s bagged three wins in Loudon over his Cup career.
- 🏁 With five wins and 12 Top 5 results this season, Hamlin is one of the most consistent playoff performers in the field.
- 🔥 Hamlin’s driver rating at New Hampshire is second-best overall in the last five years, trailing only Bell.
- 1️⃣ He’s the current playoff points leader, showing both form and focus after qualifying for the Round of 12 with a win at Gateway.
Yes, Hamlin is probably one of the squarest plays on the board. However, as mentioned in previous articles, backing drivers who step up when the lights are at their brightest is never a "bad bet" if the value is there.
Given Hamlin’s form and his ability to finish cleanly on tracks where passing comes down to timing and tire choices, he’s a sharp addition to this week’s NASCAR race picks.
Top 5 Finish: Chase Briscoe (+125 at bet365)
This might look like a terrible pick at first glance, but Briscoe is a flat-track specialist on a career-best streak in 2025. The guy wants to put his name on the map and stop playing second fiddle to the Larsons and Bells of the world.
- 💰 Briscoe has scored a Top 10 in four of his last five short-track starts.
- 👏 His 2025 New Hampshire speed is backed by a top-tier average running position and a recent Top 5 at Kansas—translatable to this weekend’s tight circuit.
- 💡 On a playoff bubble, expect extra aggression from Briscoe as he pushes to secure a Round of 8 ticket in a race defined by pit strategy and restart execution.
Briscoe is the swing pick for bettors who lean on form and short-track stats for their NASCAR race picks.
💡 Why these picks stick
Bell’s near-perfect record at Loudon, Hamlin’s history of clutch playoff runs, and Briscoe’s flat-track momentum combine to deliver a trio that checks every box for Saturday’s toughest playoff event. Whether anchoring parlays or single props, these free betting picks stand on data and playoff urgency heading into the 2025 Mobil 1 301.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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