NASCAR betting is hitting the regular-season home stretch. Just two races remain as we prepare to shift gears into the playoffs, and the postseason chase provides some interesting dynamics for this weekend's FireKeepers Casino 400.
Get the inside track on your NASCAR bets with Auto Racing Advisor preview and picks for the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400, which gets underway at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 22.
FireKeepers Casino 400 favorites
Kyle Larson (+300)
We know what he can do at Michigan's sister track in Fontana, but he's also had three wins at Michigan. Now, you're giving him an HMS car, too.
Kevin Harvick (+800)
He swept Michigan last year and won the August race the year prior. Harvick has four wins in his last five Michigan tries including five Top 2s in his last six in the Irish Hills overall.
Denny Hamlin (+750)
He has two runner-ups in his last three Michigan tries, including four Top 8s in his last five there overall.
Covers NASCAR Betting Content
FireKeepers Casino 400 long-shot picks
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
Good odds here for a driver with four Top-10 finishes in his last six Michigan tries. In fact, he had a shot to win Race 2 last year before a crash late. On the season, he also has a Top 6 in five of the last seven races, too.
Alex Bowman (+2,000)
I’d give him a look here. Bowman is good on these types of tracks and was 10th in both Michigan races in 2019.
Kurt Busch (+3,000)
Nine Top-12 finishes in his last 10 Michigan tries, including three Top-6 finishes in his last six overall. He was runner-up in the spring race of 2019 and 10th in both races a year ago. He has six Top-8 finishes in his last nine starts on the year.
FireKeepers Casino 400 matchup pick
Ryan Blaney (-120) vs Christopher Bell (+100)
Blaney has five Top-6 finishes in his last seven starts on the season and is always good at Michigan. Ford has a horsepower advantage on a track like this too.
PREDICTION: Blaney (-120)
FireKeepers Casino 400 fades
Brad Keselowski (+1,200)
He’s never won here and had just two Top-5 finishes in his last 13 starts on the season.
Joey Logano (+1,200)
Odd to put a guy here that’s fared decently well at Michigan lately, but he’s reeling on the season. Like Keselowski, Logano has two Top 5s in his last 10, including four of his last five being 15th or worse.
FireKeepers Casino 400 preview
We're at the second-to-last race of the regular season and it should be a good one. Sunday's race at the Michigan International Speedway should be a battle of Joe Gibbs Racing vs. Hendrick Motorsports. JGR has seen Denny Hamlin finish runner-up in two of his last three Michigan starts, with four Top 8s in his last five there overall. Kyle Busch has six straight Top 6s in the Irish Hills, while Martin Truex Jr. has four straight Top-5 results including six Top 6s in his last eight overall.
But, HMS may have something to say about it.
Kyle Larson is in the HMS camp now, and has three Michigan wins overall. Chase Elliott has nine Top-10 finishes in 10 Michigan tries, including three runner-ups. William Byron and Alex Bowman should be vastly improved now too.
While JGR has shown more speed than HMS over the last month, is this is the time HMS kicks it back into gear?
You also can't sleep on Kevin Harvick. He swept Michigan last year and won the August race the year prior. Harvick, has four wins in his last five Michigan tries including five Top 2s in his last six in the Irish Hills overall.
The winner should come from these nine drivers.
Also, Michigan this weekend is key for a lot of drivers because it’s honestly the final chance to make your own success. What I mean by that is, Daytona is a wildcard. Want to control your own destiny? You better do so in Michigan on Sunday.
We know Stage points are going to be key for Hamlin, Larson, Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon. It’s going to be key for the drivers on the playoff bubble as well as key for guys wanting to win the race. See, since the stage era began in 2017, all six Michigan races were won by a driver getting stage points in the first stage. Four of the six opening stages saw the eventual race winner come home in the Top 3. In 2019, the last year of a normal race distance here, the drivers that won the race ended up giving up Stage points in the second stage and positioning themselves for the win in the end.
With just a handful of drivers now on the playoff bubble needing points, they may elect for stage points instead of the race win, which would set up nicely for some favorites to pit at the end of the second stage and be up front for the final push at a win.
That’s why guys like the ones above may shine. They can be aggressive and go for the win.
The key is though, Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a race at Michigan since 2014, while Ford has won six. Toyota hasn’t won at Michigan since 2015, as that’s their lone MIS win in their last 16 tries.
FireKeepers Casino 400 key stat
Three of the last four Michigan winners have come from a Top-3 starting spot. Furthermore, nine of the last 10 have come from the Top 12.
Where can I bet on NASCAR?
You can bet on NASCAR odds at most online and casino sportsbooks, including NASCAR race winner, Top 3, and Top-10 finish odds. Head over to our top sportsbooks to bet on NASCAR odds in your area.
