Seattle Sounders FC vs Minnesota United FC Picks and Predictions: Minnesota Exploits Seattle's Thin Squad

Minnesota United hopes to do something they’ve never done in their history when they travel to Seattle tonight: Get their first-ever points vs. the Sounders in the Emerald City, and in the process pick up their fourth away win of the young season.

It will be a daunting task, as MLS odds have the hosts as solid favorites, and Seattle will be hoping to both end a two-match skid and recover from a 4-1 humiliation to rivals Portland last weekend.

They will be buoyed by the fact that Minnesota has taken just one win and one draw in their 12 head-to-head matches, but a growing list of injuries could make things a bit difficult.

Can the Sounders get things right at home, or will Minnesota continue their stellar road form? We dive into all of that in our Seattle Sounders vs. Minnesota United free betting picks for Saturday, April 22.

Seattle Sounders FC vs Minnesota United FC best odds

Seattle Sounders FC vs Minnesota United FC picks and predictions

The Seattle Sounders controlled proceedings against Portland for 70 minutes last weekend and looked to be in great shape following a Raul Ruidiaz goal — but when the final whistle blew, they were walking off after a horrific capitulation that saw them concede four goals in the final 18 minutes to their bitter rivals.

For a team that conceded just three total goals through the first seven matches, it could be easy to write the collapse off as just a fluke. It’s even easier to assume they’ll rebound at home, where they’ve yet to concede a single goal through four matches.

However, Seattle’s dealing with a rash of injuries and anytime you have to rotate your team — and are missing the caliber of players currently unavailable — it makes a team vulnerable.

Star striker Jordan Morris is returning from an 89-minute appearance with the national team against Mexico on Wednesday and is unlikely to start. Ruidiaz is set to miss the match after injuring his hamstring in training this week. Cristian Roldan has yet to exit concussion protocol and is likely out, while Josh Atencio is still coming back from injury himself.

That will make things tough against Minnesota United's stout defense. They play a compact style that limits the ability to get out and run on the break, and force shots from distance. Fewer than 20% of opposing shots have been on target this season, and their 20 total shots on goal allowed are the second-fewest in the league.

They’ve not done the greatest job at keeping those efforts out — allowing seven of the 20 to get into their goal — but they’ve also found a way to score in all seven matches thus far.

The visitors have picked up two impressive wins on the road this season, defeating Dallas and St. Louis, and they set up in a way that should frustrate a Seattle team without its leading scorer and top finisher.

Seattle managed to score just once, on only five shots on goal, against a leaky Portland defense last weekend, and with half of their starting attack on the bench, I love Minnesota’s chances to stay in this match and get their first result ever in Seattle.

My best bet: Double chance - Minnesota United or Draw (+135 at DraftKings)

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC side analysis

The Sounders are not only unbeaten at home through four matches... but they’ve yet to be beaten at the back at all.

They’ve outscored their opponents 9-0, including a 3-0 win over St Louis, with only LAFC managing a draw, but as mentioned above, they conceded four goals at Portland in their last match, against a side that had scored just six goals in the seven games prior.

Minnesota got off to their best start in club history, winning three of their first five matches — all on the road — before losing by consecutive 2-1 scores, in an away fixture to Chicago and then at home to Orlando. The latter defeat came on a goal in the closing minutes, in a match where they were the better team on the night.

Seattle’s 3-way moneyline price ranges from -165 to -190, indicates implied odds of a Seattle win in the 60% range. For me, that is way too high for a match against a quality side while missing the firepower the Sounders are.

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC Over/Under analysis

Seattle has 16 goals this season, eight of which have come from the (likely absent) Morris. Nine of those goals have come at home, leading to a pair of Overs in those four home fixtures, while their last four outings overall have all gone Over 2.5 total goals.

However, the clinical finishing early this season from Morris has led to way more goals than the xG numbers would indicate, but they’ve also allowed nearly two goals fewer than expected.

Minnesota’s last two matches both saw three total goals, just the second and third time in seven matches that mark has been hit. They play stingy defense, with two clean sheets this season (both in away matches), and they’re struggling to convert chances — as evidenced by their one goal on 17 shots a week ago — and they are also nearly a full goal below expected so far this season.

Seattle’s shots have come from the fourth-closest distance to goal on average, and that will not be easy to replicate against a Minnesota defense forcing low-quality shots; averaging nearly 18 yards away. Meanwhile, the visitors will look to hit on the break and they can finish if they get good looks, averaging 0.32 goals per shot on target — the eighth-best mark in MLS.

The Over is getting more juiced by the minute, and given the contrasting styles of play, the total in this one likely comes down to who can dictate their style the most. As such, I’d recommend staying away pre-match and looking for some live-betting value once you see how the opening 15 minutes plays out.

Seattle Sounders vs LAFC game info

Seattle Sounders FC vs Minnesota United FC key injuries

Seattle Sounders FC: Cristian Roldon M (Out), Raul Ruidiaz F (Doubtful), Jordan Morris F (Probable).
Minnesota United FC: Bakaye Dibassy D (Out).

Seattle Sounders FC vs Minnesota United FC weather

Things could get a bit slippery out there as the match wears on Saturday night. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s near kickoff, but will dip down as the chance of rain jumps to 50% near halftime. No winds are expected though.

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