Yankees vs Reds Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight’s MLB Game

Sign me up, I am fully on the Chase Burns train.

The Cincinnati Reds will usher in the era of the right-handed rookie in what is likely the most anticipated debut since Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes debuted a few years ago. Even at a projected pitch count of 78 from the BAT X, I saw a significant edge on this strikeout total and would happily take it at anything above plus money. Let's talk about it.

My projections love this bet and feel that books are anchoring to a conservative projection due to debut volatility and pitch count. Even with that in mind, I still see value here because I’m such a proponent of how good the stuff is and how well it will play against this New York Yankees lineup.

Let’s talk about the slider first, as it’s most likely to be his go-to put-away pitch in the bigs. It has the potential to be one of the best pitches for any starter in the league by the end of the season. Burns finished his college career with this pitch, delivering a 65% whiff rate. In the minors, that number remained over 50% (his other breaking ball, the curve, did the same).

The Yankees aren’t minor-league talents, and they certainly aren’t college talents, but even scaled to this level, we see tons of success. That holds particularly true against this New York lineup.

The starters aren’t finalized tonight, but depending on who is on the final card, the Yankees could have up to six players with a K rate above 30% against the slider:

• Trent Grisham (51%)
• Ben Rice (42%)
• Giancarlo Stanton (39% last season)
• Aaron Judge (33%)
• Jazz Chisholm (32%)
• Jasson Dominguez (31%)

Even in an extremely conservative estimate, those six players would account for roughly 4.5 strikeouts if he saw each of them twice. That’s a pretty good place to be with a plus-money strikeout prop at 5.5, even if one or two of these players aren’t in the lineup. His fastball, which can reach 100 mph, also matches up well against Stanton, Dominguez, and DJ LeMahieu, who struggle against high-velocity heaters.

Michael Baumann of FanGraphs explained my viewpoint on Burns perfectly in today's blog:

“I don’t know if Burns is fully formed, or if he’s even fully ready for the majors. As high as I am on him as a prospect, I have serious doubts in both respects. What I do know is this: In 13 starts, he learned everything minor league hitters could teach him. Nobody down there can challenge him.”

The risk of not knowing, and having a strong belief that what Burns looks like by the end of 2025 will be much different than what he looks like on June 24th, are the risks we accept in this bet. However, it’s also what gives us value — that this number could be woefully off.

Consider this: just last week, I had an urge to bet on an MLB future. On a whim, I went searching and landed on Chase Burns National League Rookie of the Year. 

In what will inevitably be my best CLV bet of the year, I got that future at a whopping 120-1. Today? Roughly a week later, on his debut, that number is 15-1. I’m not suggesting that this is as gross a misprice as that awards market — it is certainly not, and this bet could certainly lose — however, it speaks to the potential value we may have on our hands. 

Considering the Yankees' recent offensive struggles (10.3 strikeouts per game over their last three) and Burns, with a major-league ready arsenal, I can't pass up the +130 price on over 5.5 strikeouts for a debuting Chase Burns with elite stuff. This is my favorite prop on the board tonight.

We kept this one quite simple.

If Burns is going to cash our best bet, it’s hard to believe he’ll be able to do it without Trent Grisham striking out twice. As mentioned above, his 51% strikeout rate against Burns’ devastating slider makes him a prime strikeout candidate. Batting in the one-hole is just a bonus; we’ll take him to go over his strikeout total here. 

I’ll finish with Aaron Judge to go yard for the second-straight game. Burns will likely challenge him with the fastball. Knowing that Judge is one of the best fastball hitters of this era, with a hot Great American Ballpark serving as a backdrop for increased fly balls, is something I don’t want to miss out on.