The New York Yankees put the hurt on the San Diego Padres Friday, teeing off on Yu Darvish to take the opening game of the series by a commanding 8-0 score.
My Yankees vs. Padres prediction for this May 25 tilt expects plenty more runs in Game 2 of the series, and you can find out all the details in my MLB picks below.
Yankees vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Over 7 (-118 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Like Darvish, Dylan Cease carries a lot of name value but struggles to induce ground balls. In fact, his 36.2% fly ball rate is one of the very highest among starting pitchers, coming in almost 13 points higher than average.
The thing is, though, Cease qualifies as a power pitcher, given he’s able to mitigate a lot of the risk let on by all the fly balls and his relatively high 36.2% hard-hit rate by striking out 31.3% of the batters he’s facing. The New York Yankees have done an excellent job of limiting strikeouts this season at under 19%, a number that’s only improved over the last two weeks.
The Yanks may not prefer to face pitchers like Cease, but they do own a great .802 OPS against fly-ball pitchers and a perfectly acceptable .700 OPS against power arms. This is a very extreme case with Cease when it comes to fly balls, and given the Yankees sit atop baseball with a 15% home run-to-fly ball ratio, it would seem New York should be in a good spot — particularly with its incredibly low strikeout rate which should hurt Cease.
Marcus Stroman is the total opposite pitcher, a guy who pitches to very few strikeouts and one of the top ground ball rates in the game. This puts a slumping Padres offense in a good position as well, considering they like to put the ball on the ground and have hit .280 off finesse pitchers this year and .257 against ground ballers.
The conditions for offense here should be great, even in a pitcher’s park, considering the Yankees demonstrated last night they can hurt a fly ball pitcher even in the spacious Petco.
Yankees vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7
Dylan Cease Under 6.5 strikeouts
Anthony Rizzo to record a hit
It's now been 12 of 13 games a starting pitcher has failed to eclipse even five strikeouts against the Yankees, who have been incredibly well-disciplined at the plate and have put a ton of balls in play with a sub-18% strikeout rate. Bryan Woo, one of the top strikeout arms in the game, was the only one who was able to do it, and he found seven punchouts in six frames.
Cease is definitely a great strikeout pitcher, but he’s gone under six strikeouts in two of his last five outings and is probably a notch below Woo, given his volatility this year in the strikeout department. This couldn’t be a worse matchup for strikeouts, and I think he’ll be run from this game before he can complete six frames.
On the offensive side, Anthony Rizzo has been in a bit of a slump lately, hitting .241 over his last eight games, but he’s still recorded a hit in four of those contests and owns three hits in seven at bats against Cease with a solid .331 xBA. He’s a good guy to buy into here at a discount.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Padres odds
Yankees vs Padres live odds
Yankees vs Padres opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-210) | San Diego -1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: New York -105 | San Diego -115
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Padres spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres opened up around -115 on the moneyline, and after some slight fluctuation between -115 and -120 on Saturday morning, have been steadily pushed out in the afternoon all the way to around -125 as we talk now.
- The total opened up at 7.5 runs and, after some slight movement towards the Under, has fallen to seven.
- According to DraftKings, 79% of the bets made on the moneyline and 81% of the cash are on the Yankees.
- The Over has commanded 85% of the tickets and 78% of the handle.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Yankees vs Padres trend
[Stat]. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres
Yankees vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, SDPA |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (3-2, 3.05 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (5-3, 3.05 ERA) |
Yankees vs Padres latest injuries
Yankees vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
