Reds vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Toronto Blue Jays are back home this week, beginning with a three-game set against the Cincinnati Reds.

Neither team displayed much offense over the weekend, but with Cincinnati being extra putrid (and Toronto having the pitching advantage) my Blue Jays vs. Reds predictions expect the Jays to have the early edge.

See why betting Toronto to be the first to two is among my best MLB picks — and which Jays hitter we can back — for tonight's MLB action.

Reds vs Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
Race to 2: Toronto (-122 at PROLINE+)

My analysis
So yeah, the Toronto Blue Jays offense was relatively quiet over the weekend, visiting the friendly confines in Wrigley and managing eight total runs across three games, and is averaging just a shade over four runs per game since the end of July.

However, the silver lining — well, there are two silver linings — are:

• The pitching has been shockingly strong as of late, holding opponents to two runs or fewer in six of their last nine games.
• This bet, again, is for the Jays to get two runs before the Reds do.

Real low bar here.

Starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has been a key contributor to the Jays' recent run prevention, allowing just two runs on nine hits over his last 15 innings (two starts). He's succeeded by limiting hard contact and has a good chance to again keep runs off the board tonight vs. a Cincinnati Reds offense that was, well, offensive this past weekend.

Cincy welcomed Kansas City over the weekend and got absolutely punked, getting outscored 28-3 over a three-game span, managing just 18 hits and a 34% strikeout rate.

This weekend was the low point of a prolonged struggle as over the last 30 days, the Reds are 20th in batting average, 23rd in BABIP, and have the 22nd-worst soft contact rate against righties.

Cincinnati announced that Julian Aguiar will make his MLB debut tonight. The 23-year-old righty began this year in Double-A before getting promoted to Triple-A, where he has a 4.40 ERA in nine starts, but has struggled with walks, posting a 3.1 BB/9.

Aguiar mainly uses a sinker/slider/changeup combination to encourage a lot of ground balls, but it won't help that he'll be backed by the league's second-worst defense (based on defensive runs saved).

The Jays offense has been just OK, but it's been much better than Cincinnati, and they have a decided pitching advantage as well. I don't expect a ton of offense overall tonight, but I like Toronto's chances of immediately doing a little more than its opponent.   

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Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at PROLINE+)

My analysis
When it comes to RBIs, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the obvious choice... but at +120, I'm instead leaning towards Spencer Horwitz, who often bats behind Vladdy in the Jays lineup vs. RHP and offers a little more value at +165.

I'm expecting a little traffic on the basepaths, facing a rookie (making his MLB debut) who has struggled with walks in AAA and pitches to contact with a brutal defense behind him.

That should lead to at least 1-2 ABs for the lefty Horwitz with RISP, who should be a little less prone to strikeouts against Aguiar and has also done well against sinkers this season, sporting a .311 xBA.

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Reds vs Blue Jays odds

Reds vs Blue Jays live odds

Reds vs Blue Jays opening odds

• Run line: Cincinnati +2 -150 | Toronto -2 +125
• Moneyline: Cincinnati +145 | Toronto -165
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Reds vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The total hit the board at a flat eight and quickly moved to 8.5 after Aguiar was announced as the starter.
• The moneyline followed the same format, with the Jays quickly jumping from -165 to -180.
• Fifty-five percent of Covers Consensus picks for this game are on the Toronto ML, with 59% of action towards the Over.
• The Reds have seen the Under cash in five of their last eight games, while the Jays are 4-2 to the Under in their last six.

Reds vs Blue Jays trend

The Reds have gone Under their first five innings team total in six of their last nine games (+2.85 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Blue Jays.

Reds vs Blue Jays game info

*Stats are from AAA

Reds vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Reds vs Blue Jays weather

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