Red Sox vs Rays Picks and Predictions: Tampa Edges Closer to Series Sweep

On Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox go at it for Game 3 of a four-game series in Tampa Bay. 

The Red Sox will want last night back, blowing a 2-0 lead in the sixth inning via a pair of errors after five scoreless innings from their ace Chris Sale in his return. That was the second straight game the Rays had claimed from the Red Sox, and consequently, Tampa Bay has overtaken Boston in the second spot in the AL East with a 47-40 record. 

Who will take the third game of this series? Find out with our Rays vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 13, 2022.

Red Sox vs Rays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Rays opened up as a strong -180 favorite this morning and have since taken a bit more money. As of publication, they have gone to -200, with the Red Sox returning at around +170. The total opened up at eight and has since fallen to 7.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Rays predictions

• Prediction: McClanahan to record a win (+120)
• Prediction: F5 Under 3.5 (-105)
• Best bet: McClanahan to record a win (+120)

Picks made on 7/13/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Red Sox vs Rays game info

• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Bally Sports Sun

Red Sox vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Josh Winckowski (3-3, 4.35 ERA): While Winckowski’s xERA suggests a slight positive regression, there are not many things he's done well in his rookie season. His peripherals point to a pitcher just below MLB average who has a problem with hard-hit balls from time to time. Of course, that's not exactly the worst thing in the world for a rookie. He's generally done a decent job of keeping his team in contention with only one blowup start against the New York Yankees, surrendering six runs in five innings.

Shane McClanahan (9-3, 1.73 ERA): McClanahan uses a wipe-out power fastball and duel-breaking balls to rack up his many strikeouts. When teams are swinging, he's at his best. He is second in baseball in strikeouts, with 141, trailing the league leader Dylan Cease by only one. McClanahan hasn't given up more than one earned run in his past six starts, with two of those against the Yankees.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays

Red Sox vs Rays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Today pits a rookie pitcher against the guy I expect to win the Cy Young. While I think the neighborhood of -200 is a bit pricey for the Rays, I can't argue with the price too much. So, I'll be backing Tampa today, and looking for a more creative way to support the Rays. 

The Red Sox batting lineup is constructed similarly to the Yankees’ lineup, with dangerous hitters mixed in throughout. In particular, hitters that depend on solid contact and usually a home run. As a result, you won't find many pitchers that have faced that lineup twice and held them to just two combined earned runs.

McClanahan is one of the best in baseball at eliminating solid contact. His solid contact rating of 5.2% is near the top of baseball, and his isolated power is the 14th lowest of any pitcher. Like any power fastball guy, it's not uncommon for him to give up the odd home run once in a while, but it's overshadowed by everything else. 

Of batters to face him, 36% are falling victim to a strikeout. Again, that's the best in the league. For the most part, he's doing that on a put-out breaking pitch that's getting batters to chase. That's a problem for a Red Sox lineup ranking eighth in chase rate and ninth in swing rate. 

Those aren't exceptionally high, but they are above the league average and are magnified when facing a guy like McClanahan.

Anytime I back the Rays, I have to pause just a bit. I hate backing anemic offenses, and at times, the Rays can be just that. But, they are a veteran group of hitters who should make a young guy like Winckowski work to get outs, and he gets into trouble when forced to do that. 

I said I wanted to get creative with how I backed this game. I don't feel comfortable enough to lay the run line, and I don't want to lay -200. So, I'm going to look at a plus-money play instead. 

I don't see many routes that the Rays win this game without a gem from McClanahan, and I believe they will win. 

Because of that, this seems like a layup.

Prediction: Shane McClanahan to record a win (+120 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Now to a side where I see much more of a betting edge. I'm jumping on the Under here, and we have plenty of historical trends in our favor. 

Here are a few of those trends that we'll point out:

• The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams
• The Under is 4-0 in the Rays' last four games following a win
• The Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay

As we get closer to the All-Star break, these games between divisional foes tend to get a bit more grueling and low-scoring. The numbers have borne that out over the past seven days, with totals in games going Under at about a 60% clip. 

This one seems tailor-made for another Under play situationally. You have one of the league's best pitchers on the mound, and opposing him, you have a pitcher who is due for some improvement, looking to avoid getting swept by a divisional foe. 

As previously stated, I'm not crazy about Winckowski, but I'm also not crazy about a Tampa Bay offense with the league's lowest barrel rate.

My projections see the most significant edge here in the first five market. I have it Under the posted total around 60% of the time, which gives us a nice edge vs. the -105 juice.

Prediction: First-five innings Under 3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I trust McClanahan and will double down on him here to record the win. 

Beyond my handicap in this game, this is another instance where the books tell us a story. Over 17.5 outs recorded by McClanahan is juiced heavily at around -200. 

If McClanahan records over 17.5 outs, he'll have pitched for six innings, and if he's thrown that many innings, again, I think that means the Rays will be winning the game. 

Essentially, you're giving me something that the oddsmakers view as a -200 probability of occurring at plus money. I'll take the bet every day.

Pick: Shane McClanahan to record a win (+120 at DraftKings)

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