Mets vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Morton Stays Hot, Leads ATL at Home

Charlie Morton's season may not have started how he wanted, but he's settled into a nice groove of late, pitching to a 1.60 ERA across his last five starts. Our MLB betting picks are backing that to continue as the Braves snag this series finale.

Last Updated: Jul 13, 2022 8:21 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Charlie Morton Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves wrap up a three-game series at Truist Park with a matinee on Wednesday.

The two best teams in the NL East split the first two contests in this set and the Braves are favorites for the rubber match with MLB betting lines opening with Atlanta as a -136 home favorite.

Here are our best free Mets vs. Braves MLB betting picks and predictions for July 13.

Mets vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with Atlanta at -136 and the Over/Under at 8.5. Early money came in on the home team shifting the Braves line to -164.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 7/13/2022 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2022
First pitch: 12:20 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports South

Mets vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (6-6, 3.94 ERA): In his first season with the Mets, Bassitt has pitched to a 1.14 WHIP with an OBA of .230 across 16 starts. In his previous start last Friday, he allowed six hits and two runs across 6 1-3 innings vs. the Marlins.

Charlie Morton (5-3, 4.21 ERA): The two-time All-Star was Atlanta's ace during their run to the World Series in 2021. He got off to a rough start this year, pitching to a 5.67 ERA through the middle of June but has since settled into a groove. In his last five starts, he has a sizzling 1.60 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP across 33 2-3 innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Braves are 20-7 in their last 27 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves

Mets vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

These teams are battling for supremacy in the NL East and after beating the Mets 4-1 last night, the Braves trail by just 1.5 games.

Led by Austin Riley (slashing .282/.347/.560), Atlanta ranks third in the majors with an OPS of .758 with that number bumping up to .791 over the last 30 days. The Mets are 10th in the majors with an OPS of .724 and have gone cold at the dish over the past 30 days with an OPS of just .675.

Thankfully for Mets fans, they have been getting some terrific pitching from a staff that is still waiting on the return of Jacob deGrom. Chris Bassitt will take to the mound today and he boasts an expected ERA of 3.11 through 16 starts. He also had a solid start against the Braves back on May 2 when he fanned eight batters and allowed three runs in seven innings of work. 

His counterpart today, Charlie Morton, struggled when he faced the Mets in May surrendering seven hits, walking three, and giving up four earned runs in 5 2-3 innings. However, Morton has been red-hot lately allowing just 18 hits and six runs while fanning 42 batters through 33 2-3 innings in his last five starts. 

These teams might be neck-and-neck in the standings but in terms of recent form, it's tough to fade the Braves here. Not only have they been mashing at the plate but Morton has looked like his former All-Star self and his curveball continues to make batters look silly.

I'm following the line movement and backing the defending World Series champs at home.

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-155 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We mentioned how sharp Morton has looked recently and he'll be fortunate to face a Mets lineup that's been ice cold.

While outfielder Starling Marte has been hitting well, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil are all in the midst of a slump. Over the last two weeks, Alonso is batting just .200 with a single home run, Lindor is hitting .245, and McNeil is batting .200 — more than 100 points lower than his season average.

Bassitt doesn't have overpowering stuff but he does an excellent job of limiting hard contact which will come in handy against a powerful Braves lineup.

The bullpens for both squads have also been very reliable with Mets relievers pitching to a 1.22 WHIP and an OBA of .225. Despite several key injuries, the Braves bullpen has been even better ranking third in the majors in ERA (3.07), fifth in OBA (.221), and sixth in WHIP (1.17).

With the Under 9-1 in the Braves' last 10 games overall, including 16-5 in their previous 21 contests at home, I'm leaning in that direction today.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-103 at SportsInteraction)

Best bet

The Mets typically strike out at one of the lowest rates in the majors but they struck out 13 times in just 32 at-bats last night. That could continue today with the red-hot Morton on the mound. Since the start of June, Morton has fanned 62 batters in 44 2-3 innings.

With the Over/Under on Morton's strikeouts total set at 6.5 today, a number that he has eclipsed in six of his last seven starts, I'm betting the Over.

Charlie Morton Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+104 at FanDuel)

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