The Toronto Blue Jays will try to get back into the win column against the Boston Red Sox, who snapped a five-game losing streak by taking the series opener last night.
Both clubs have struggled offensively over the last week or so but Toronto will hope to have the edge with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, who hasn’t lost in over a month.
I'm not sure if the Jays' offense will suddenly spring to life, but I do think Kikuchi does his part to help the hosts even up the series — read more in my Red Sox vs. Blue Jays free MLB picks for Canada Day!
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
The Boston Red Sox rolled to a 5-0 win on Friday night thanks, to a couple of two-RBI performances from Justin Turner and Jarren Duran – a complete flip of the script compared to what we’ve seen from the Red Sox of late.
The BoSox have averaged a mere 2.22 runs per game over their last nine contests, going 2-7 and managing to score more than two runs just four times over that span.
The Toronto Blue Jays will be sending Yusei Kikuchi to the mound today as he aims to continue an impressive stretch of play. The southpaw has given up just one earned run over his last two starts, while holding opposing offenses to two earned runs or fewer in six straight outings.
Boston has been okay — not great — against left-handed pitching, ranking tied for 18th in the majors in slugging percentage (.405) while batting .253 (15th).
Assuming we see another strong start from Kikuchi — and the top arm in the Jays bullpen are all fresh and ready to support him as well — I expect the Red Sox to have another slow day at the plate.
Considering the Jays offense has also been rather pedestrian, you can also look at the full-game Under 9.0 (available at -111 at Sports Interaction) but keying in on the Red Sox is the bet value on the board.
My best bet: Red Sox team total Under 3.5 (+115 at DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Red Sox TT Under 3.5
Kikuchi 6+ strikeouts
Springer to get a hit
We’re going to roll with the hot hand in our same-game parlay and look for Kikuchi to fan at least six batters in today’s ballgame. The southpaw hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout machine this season, but has a solid 85 Ks in 84 innings of work — and he’s also punched out at least six in four of his last five starts, recording eight Ks in two of those contests.
The Jays had a slow June at the plate, driving in just 99 RBI, the ninth-worst mark in the MLB. However, George Springer has been consistent, though, with 30 hits last month — tied for the team lead — and hits in nine of his last 12 games.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Jays get the nod as the clear home favorite based on the MLB odds today, opening at -159 on the moneyline and climbing as high as -179 by late Saturday morning.
With the Red Sox throwing Kutter Crawford onto the mound, the hosts should have the edge. He was up and down in June, giving up four earned runs in two of his five starts while holding opponents to two earned runs or less in the other three outings.
He may not give Boston tons of length, though, as he averaged just over four innings of work per start.
The total for this one settled at 9 runs at most books but can be found as high as 9.5. Either way, I’m definitely taking the Under today: We talked about Boston’s offensive woes but Toronto hasn’t been much better, averaging 3.53 runs per game over its last 15 contests.
The Under is also 4-0 in Toronto’s last four games and 6-0 in Boston’s last six road contests vs. a team with a winning record.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Boston's last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford (2-4, 4.01 ERA): Crawford has been a utility man for the Red Sox, making seven starts and eight appearances out of the bullpen this year. He’s excelled out of the pen but struggled last month when he pitched solely as a starter, posting a 4.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over five appearances.
Yusei Kikuchi (7-2, 3.75 ERA): Kikuchi was roughed up in May, posting a 5.83 ERA over six starts, but bounced back admirably in June with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over five outings — his best month of the season so far. The southpaw has given up more than four hits just once in his last six contests.
