The Texas Rangers came into this series outside of a playoff spot but have now overtaken the Toronto Blue Jays thanks to two straight wins at Rogers Centre (and four straight overall).
Texas has been producing plenty of runs over its last three contests and may need to rely on its offense again as the Rangers send Jordan Montgmery — a southpaw that’s had some trouble in recent starts — to the mound.
Will the visitors run up the score again and push further past Toronto? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, September 13.
Rangers vs Blue Jays odds
Rangers vs Blue Jays predictions
Montgomery has been pretty bad for Texas over his last three starts, allowing a combined 19 hits, three homers, and 14 earned runs across just 14 2/3 innings. His last two outings were particularly rough as he gave up five earned runs to the Athletics over 5 2/3 innings on September 8 after allowing six through just 3 2/3 innings to the Twins on September 2.
The Jays faced Montgomery during the season's opening series when he was still with the Cardinals, putting up six hits and three runs against him in five innings. They’ll be looking to at least match that tonight if they’re going to get the win.
On Toronto’s mound, Kikuchi will look to build off his solid performance last time out. The southpaw held the Royals to just three hits and one earned run over five innings — the first time he held an opponent to less than three runs since August 15. Kikuchi will be faced with a much harder test tonight, though, as a hot Texas offense is averaging 8.33 runs over its last three contests.
Coupling Montgomery’s struggles with Texas’ surging bats, I think we’ll see these clubs combine for at least five runs over the first five innings.
My best bet: First five innings Over 4.5 runs scored (-104 at SIA)
Rangers vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
We’ll kick off today’s same-game parlay by taking the Over on 8.5 runs, a natural continuation of these teams hitting the Over on 4.5 runs through the first five innings. If Montgomery comes out with a similar performance, the Blue Jays should be able to put up at least four runs in the game — a number they’ve hit in 11 of their past 13 outings — with the Rangers bats doing the rest of the work. Texas has also been playing some high-scoring games with the Over cashing in nine of its last 10 outings — another reason to like the Over tonight.
Semien, the former Blue Jay, has recorded two-plus total bases in four of his last seven games. He’s posted at least two bases in two of five meetings against Toronto this season. Meanwhile, Seager has put up eight total bases across the first two games of this season, recording multiple bases in four of his last five contests.
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Rangers vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened as the slight home favorite for tonight’s contest at -118 on the moneyline with the total at 8.5 runs. It’s a huge game for both teams as Texas sits half a game above Toronto in the AL wild-card race, and arguably a game that Toronto should win with an advantage on the mound.
Kikuchi hasn’t been at the top of his game, surrendering 14 runs (10 earned) over his last four starts, but he still gives the Jays the edge on paper. Montgomery has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last nine outings so the hosts will need to get to him early if they’re going to outpace a hot Texas offense.
These clubs have cashed the Over in each of their last three meetings this season, averaging 13.67 total runs across those contests. If the Jays are able to put up a few runs against Montgomery, the pressure will be on the Rangers bats to respond. Texas has scored at least six runs in three straight games and I’m not sure Kikuchi will be able to slow the Rangers down.
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The Over is 15-4 in Texas’ last 19 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Blue Jays
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Rangers vs Blue Jays game info
|Location:||Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Wednesday, September 13, 2023|
|First pitch:||7:07 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports Southwest, Rogers Sportsnet|
Jordan Montgomery (6-9, 3.42 ERA): We’ve focused on some of Montgomery’s poor outings of late but the left-hander was actually solid last month, posting a 2.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP through five starts in August. He did give up five runs to the A’s — MLB’s worst offensive team — last time out, so we’ll see if he can rebound tonight.
Yusei Kikuchi (9-5, 3.57 ERA): Kikuchi will try to snap a six-game winless skid in tonight’s contest, though the southpaw has arguably deserved a better fate. Kikuchi has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in right of his last 10 starts but picked up just two wins over that span.
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