Rangers vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Mont Continues to Impress in Postseason Run

A much-anticipated ALCS between both Texas teams is about to begin as World Series odds continue to narrow down. 

The Houston Astros have made it back to this stage for a seventh consecutive season while the upstart Texas Rangers, fresh off spending more in free agency, have managed to defy expectations and become one of the frontrunners in the MLB odds.

Let's dive right into it with our in-depth MLB playoff predictions and MLB picks for Game 1 of Rangers vs. Astros.

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros Game 1 odds

Rangers vs Astros series odds

Team
Rangers	+120	+126	+120	+125	+115
Astros	-140	-148	-140	-145	-139

Rangers vs Astros predictions

The two teams who deserve to be at this stage have arrived in the ALCS. The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, with a .865 and .818 postseason OPS, respectively, are the two top offenses remaining on the American League side.

While Texas was able to hold up against a very strong Orioles pitching staff, things might get a little bit easier here for the road team against Houston.

Although Texas managed to stand its ground against a formidable Orioles pitching staff, the road ahead might become somewhat more favorable for the Rangers when facing Houston. The defending champions posted a 3.94 ERA during the regular season and currently bring a 3.25 staff ERA and a somewhat challenging 3.60 bullpen ERA into this matchup.

Surprisingly, Texas now boasts a superior rotation with a 2.22 ERA throughout the postseason and a more effective bullpen as well (2.16 ERA).

Now, Houston can hit better than Baltimore can, but the difference is almost negligible. On top of that, we can’t ignore how good this team has looked on the bump. Not only has Texas seemed to fix its glaring issues in the bullpen, but its starting pitching has held up despite injuries to Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.

With Scherzer expected back for this series, we can assume Dane Dunning will be available behind starter Jordan Montogmery out of the bullpen, strengthening the advantage here for Texas. That has me leaning toward the underdogs here both in the series and in Game 1.

While Justin Verlander was excellent in his lone start versus the Rangers this season, Montgomery was just as good. He shut down baseball’s third-best offense against lefties in June, allowing just one earned run with six strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings. The lefty also owns a 2.55 postseason ERA in 17 2/3 innings, which trumps Verlander’s 4.40 ERA over the last three postseasons.

Montgomery has done a good job at keeping the ball on the ground against Houston’s hitters throughout his career, amounting to a respectable .305 xwOBA, which isn’t too far behind the Rangers’ career numbers against Verlander (.273 xwOBA).

With Verlander regressing a bit this year in the strikeout and contact departments, I think this one’s about as even as it gets. I’ll ultimately choose to go with the offense that looked strong against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball over Houston, which looked worse when dealt a similar hand.

I expect a strong showing from an ever-improving Rangers bullpen and for Montgomery to show up in the playoffs yet again.

My best bet: Rangers moneyline (+126 at Caesars)

Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay

Rangers moneyline (+115)

Justin Verlander 2+ walks (-135)

Marcus Semien 2+ total bases (+105)

+475 at DraftKings

Alright, let’s get cooking here. 

One thing that’s stood out to me throughout the postseason is the Rangers’ patience at the dish. Through five games, they have walked at a 13.3% clip, and that should be a spot of bother for Verlander. The Astros’ ace walked three Diamondbacks in his final regular-season start, and he followed that up with three walks in Game 1 of the ALDS versus Minnesota. He’s now walked nine over his last three postseason starts, hitting this mark in every start.

Verlander has always been a pitcher who has avoided walks, but his free-pass rate grew from 4.4% to 6.7% this season. It’s clearly been an issue for him, and with the stakes high and the hitters more patient than ever in the postseason, it’s been a bit of a greater concern.

Meanwhile, Marcus Semien has almost double the number of plate appearances against Verlander than the next-most on this team, hitting .326 off of Verlander in 43 at-bats with a firm .275 expected batting average and .532 xSLG. He should be the man to do damage here, and it doesn’t hurt that he bats right at the top of the order either.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Under is where I’d lay down my money if I’m betting on the total. While I think there’s value in taking the Rangers here in what I’d deem a pick'em, I ultimately respect Verlander enough to expect this one to be a low-scoring game. Both pitchers have great results and expected numbers versus their opponents, and they should each be able to work five solid frames.

Now, I am a bit weary of both bullpens here. Texas’ stable has looked awesome through two series, but we can’t forget about how poorly these guys pitched all year. It’s always possible that against an offense this strong, the arms could quickly regress.

Similarly, on the Astros side, things have not been going that well this postseason, so it’s hard to trust them. That’s the only thing that should drive this game to go Over, so perhaps it’s worth considering the first five Under.

Over at DraftKings, just 39% of the bets on the moneyline have come in on the Rangers, but they’ve commanded a strong 49% of the handle. The Under has garnered 70% of the tickets and 70% of the handle wagered on the total.

Trend to know

The Rangers have hit the moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.70 Units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros

Rangers vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA): The lefty finished the year strong with a 3.22 ERA in September before turning in a gem against the Rays in the wild-card round, spinning seven scoreless innings. He was touched up for four earned runs by the Orioles in the ALDS, but he pitched pretty well to avoid further damage.

Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22 ERA): The 40-year-old turned in an excellent outing against the Twins in the ALDS, posting six scoreless frames to lead Houston to a Game 1 win. After returning to Houston at the deadline, he managed a 3.31 ERA with the Astros over the final two months of the regular season.

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