Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Kirby Stays Stingy With Free Passes

Prop bet #1: Hello Soto

Aaron Judge is on such a heater right now, that sometimes you can forget that Juan Soto is also tearing the cover off the baseball. Tonight, the Bronx Bombing Bash Brothers host Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins, and it could be a long night for the right-hander.

I’ve been saying this for most of the season, but the acquisition of Soto was the most impactful of any made this offseason. The three-time All-Star has changed the whole dynamic of this New York Yankees lineup.

Soto enters this matchup hitting .322 with a 1.031 OPS while smashing 17 home runs and driving in 53 RBIs and he’s been an even tougher out recently. The Yankees’ slugger is 11-for-his-last-26 with three dingers, a double, and two triples over his last seven games. That’s good for a .423 average and a 1.462 and he gets a good matchup against Ober.

The Twins’ starter has been pretty average this season. Ober is pitching to a 4.01 expected ERA while surrendering a .242 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 42nd and 51st percentile respectively. See. Pretty average. 

Ober has yet to make a start in his career against the Yankees, but he faced the San Diego Padres last season, so Soto is one of the few Yanks to have some experience against him. Even though it’s a small sample size Soto is 2-3 with two doubles in his career against Ober.

Soto is locked in and has topped 1.5 total bases five times in his last seven games, and yet we are still getting plus money on the Over in this matchup. I’m betting Soto keeps raking and hits the Over once again.

Juan Soto prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: No walk in the park

Seattle Mariners starter George Kirby burst onto the scene last season and immediately became the league’s “Walk King.” The right-hander led the majors in walks per nine innings thanks to surrendering just 19 free passes in 190 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 and Kirby is getting back to his stingy ways in 2024.

After walking a stunning five batters over his first eight starts (that is satire), Kirby has hit ball four just once over his last four starts. That works out to a minuscule 0.4 walks per nine innings. For context, Kirby’s walks per nine innings in 2023 was 0.9.

Tonight, he’ll take the ball against the Oakland Athletics. The A’s were a fun team to start the season but that feeling has faded as the team has lost 19 of its last 25 games overall and right-handers have been a problem. They rank 24^th in batting average, 21^st in OPS, and have the third-highest strikeout rate when facing righties this season.

This will be Kirby’s first start against the A’s this season but in two meetings last year he gave up just one walk over 14 innings of work.

It may seem a little scary taking the Under on a prop that’s sitting at 0.5, but the price here makes it more than worthwhile. At +175, there is about a 36% implied probability. But Kirby has not walked a batter in seven of his 12 starts this season (58%) and three of his last four overall. Back Kirby to do what he does best. 

George Kirby prop: Under 0.5 walks allowed (+175 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Early shower

It’s been a tough start to the season for the reigning National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-backs sit in fourth place in the NL West, already 9.5 games back of the first-place Dodgers. 

But Arizona enters tonight’s matchup with the rival San Francisco Giants starting to build some momentum, winners of three in a row, including a 4-2 win in the opener of this series last night.

Part of the problem for the D-backs has been that the lineup has been inconsistent, particularly against right-handed pitchers. Luckily, that won’t be a problem tonight as they’ll dig in against Giants’ starter Kyle Harrison.

The 22-year-old southpaw has been hasn’t been particularly bad, pitching to a 4.15 ERA but he could be in for a regression. The left-hander has an expected ERA of 4.81 and an opponent-expected batting average of .262. Those rank in the 18th and 28th percentile respectively. 

We’ve started to see a bit of that. Harrison has pitched five innings or fewer in six of his last eight starts, and the last four in a row. That also includes an April 20 meeting against Arizona which lasted just four innings after allowing three runs on six hits.

Meanwhile, the D-backs' struggles against righties have not spilled over against southpaws. Arizona ranks first in batting average, and third in OPS and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season. 

I like the D-backs to do enough against Harrison to keep him Under his outs-recorded prop in this one.

Kyle Harrison prop: Under 16.5 outs recorded (-128 at FanDuel)