We saw a relatively eventful series opener between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros. They combined for nine runs in a high-stakes divisional clash while going Over the total.
With a pair of pitchers generating better recent results than perhaps deserved, my Rangers vs. Astros predictions expect the offenses to make noise once again. Let’s break it down with my September 16 MLB picks.
Rangers vs Astros prediction
Rangers vs Astros best bet: Over 8 (-105)
This total feels a little low as the pitching matchup isn’t as good as it appears at first glance. Texas
He's conceded at least two runs in six of his last eight starts, three runs in two of the past three, and his underlying metrics are clearly heading south.
Kelly owns an ERA of 2.53 over the past 30 days, but with a 4.24 FIP attached. That’s a difference of -1.71 between the two metrics, indicating Kelly has not pitched as well as the counting numbers suggest.
Of the day’s projected starters, the gap of -1.71 in ERA minus FIP is the second largest. Regression should be coming.
It just so happens the pitcher with the largest gap in ERA minus FIP is AJ Blubaugh, who will kick things off for the Houston Astros tonight and, ideally, give them some length.
The offenses look capable of taking advantage of these red flags as well. Houston has scored six runs or more in three of the past four, while Texas ranks Top 10 in average and wOBA vs. right-handed pitching over the last 10 days.
Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
There’s a lot to like with Christian Walker and his current form. He’s driven in five runs over his past four games and is hammering the ball right now, posting an average exit velocity of 96 miles per hour over the past 20 at-bats.
Wyatt Langford has averaged an extra 0.4 total bases per game on the road this season. He’s hit for real power against the fastball and a high average against the sweeper. Those are Blubaugh’s two most-used pitches, accounting for 86.1% when facing righties.
Rangers vs Astros SGP
- Over 8
- Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBI
- Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 total bases
Rangers vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Texas -112 | Houston -112
- Run line: Texas -1.5 (+125) | Houston +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Rangers vs Astros trend
Texas and Houston have combined for at least nine runs in three of the past four meetings at Daikin Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros.
How to watch Rangers vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, September 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSN, SCHN |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (12-7, 3.21 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Cristian Javier (1-3, 4.79 ERA) |
Rangers vs Astros latest injuries
Rangers vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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