We have a small slate of MLB games, but there is still great value in the prop market.
First, we're headed west for a matchup of California and a strikeout total that is too high. After that, we're staying with the same game where we have great value on a player to get a hit. Finally, we're finishing by targeting an Under for an Atlanta Brave, taking the mound.
MLB props for September 21
- Harrison Under 4.5 strikeouts
- Estrada Over 0.5 total bases
- Fried Under 1.5 walks
Picks made on September 21 at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Prop bet #1: No whiffs
The Dodgers have been and remain one of the most patient teams at the plate in baseball. Because of that, they chase the fewest amount of pitches outside of the zone. And, because of that, their strikeouts go down when facing a pitcher who is chase-reliant. It all makes sense.
Over the last three games, Harrison has thrown 52.4% of his pitches outside the zone. On about 30% of them, he's gotten swings, and of those three games, he's gone Over this number all three times, including an eye-popping 11 strikeouts against the Cincinnati Reds. But those teams all have something in common: they all rank in the bottom 10 of the league in chase contact rate. That's not the case for LA. The premise is that the Dodgers will force Harrison to throw pitches in the zone, and they'll at least make some contact to avoid a strikeout. I'm okay taking this to -110.
Prop bet #2: Playing the percentages
When you bet this in the base market instead of the hit market, you get a nice discount. I priced Estrada to get a hit at -182, which makes this one of the most significant values on the board. With that said, heavy juice or not, I had to include it here.
Estrada has gotten a hit three consecutive times that he's faced the Dodgers and is riding a decent hot streak of hits in eight of the last ten games. Tonight, he gets a matchup against a pitcher that I'd consider one of the weaker parts of the Dodgers' starting rotation, Emmett Sheehan. Sheehan has certainly been unlucky. He's an expected FIP, expected batting average, and expected ERA, which are much better than the numbers he put on paper. However, at some point, the results have to take precedence and are precisely positive.
This is a play on the numbers. Sheehan throws the fastball over 50%, and hitters have hit over the league average against it a shade under .240. Estrada will enter this game with the third-highest batting average against the fastball among qualified Giants and the second-highest average against it in tonight's expected lineup. That makes this pretty straightforward. Give me Estrada to keep streaking.
Thairo Estrada prop: Over 0.5 total bases (-160 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Free swinging Nats
We're finishing up things with a prop that I would classify as closer to a coin flip than plus money, so I'll happily grab it.
The Washington Nationals don't walk. They are 28th in baseball this season in walks per game, and that number falls to dead last when facing a left-handed pitcher. Fried has walked two or more batters in three straight games, which is likely while we've been fortunate enough to get this price. However, this doesn't consider his dominant control historically when playing the Washington Nationals. He's faced them five times in his career and walked a single batter once. The handicap here isn't too complicated. Fried owns this matchup, and the Nationals swing at every pitch they see from left-handers.
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