I’m riding on the heels of a 6-1 SU, +5.37u run in this article over the last two days, and am looking to stay hot into the weekend with another trio of MLB player props.
Today I’m back on pitcher props; hitting an Over out play at Busch Stadium, betting against walks on the West Coast, and setting my watch to more runs allowed from a K.C. pitcher.
Here are my three best MLB prop plays for Friday, September 1.
MLB props for September 1
- Hudson Over 15.5 outs
- Fried Under 1.5 walks allowed
- Lyles Over 2.5 earned runs
Picks made on September 1 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Hudson handles Pirates
Dakota Hudson has earned a 100-pitch leash over the summer months as the lesser-known starter on an underachieving Cardinals team is averaging 96.5 pitches per game over his last six turns, and is getting deep even in bad outings.
Hudson has started five straight games, has gone more than 15 outs four times, and still has pitched to a 4.55 ERA. Hudson got tagged for five runs in his last start and still went 17 outs on 107 pitches.
With an out total of just 15.5 and facing a weak Pirates offense, Hudson has a solid chance to hit the Over again today at home with slight winds blowing in and 80-degree temps.
THE BAT is projecting 100 pitches, 18.0 outs, and 3.93 strikeouts. Looking at his previous out totals, Hudson’s closed at 16.5 vs. the Mets and at 17.5 vs. the A’s, making today’s 15.5 a great Over play. I’d play this to -135. THE BAT X also released his Over 5.5 hits allowed at +125 this morning at bet365.
Dakota Hudson prop: Over 15.5 outs (-115)
Prop bet #2: Max control
Max Fried is a control freak with a 1.07 WHIP over his last 460 innings spanning four MLB seasons. He’s stretched out and back on his game with a 28:5 K:BB rate since returning over 27-plus innings. The Dodgers are one of the lowest K% teams in baseball but have been walking at a league-average rate over the last 30 days.
Fried’s Under 1.5 walks is +120 at bet365 as of this morning. Some books are as short as +102, which is still showing value with THE BAT projecting 1.43 walks.
Fried has gone over this number just once since rejoining the rotation, and is 29-11 to the Under across his last 40 starts dating back to 2022. This should be priced closer to a coin-flip and not solid plus-money, but the Dodgers' solid BB% numbers are being heavily priced in here. However, the emphasis of the handicap should be on Fried more than the L.A. bats.
Fried has also given up 29 hits over his last 21 innings (four starts), meaning he’s hittable and in the zone, which is also great for the Under 1.5 walks at +120 here.
Max Fried prop: Under 1.5 walks (+120 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: The X-Lyles
Kansas City Royals starter Jordan Lyles will trot out to the mound today and get his usual 90-plus pitches regardless of how the outing goes. The veteran pitcher has a 7.71 ERA over his last seven starts with 48 hits allowed over 39 innings, but has still averaged 93 pitches per start.
The right-hander has allowed three or more earned runs in all seven of those starts and is likely going to get hit around again today vs. a Boston offense that sits in the Top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA over the last 30 days.
THE BAT is projecting 3.65 earned runs, which is the second-most of any starting pitcher on the board today behind only Chris Flexen at Coors. The price is falling on his Over 2.5 earned runs, which was at -135 at bet365 this morning but has shortened up to -140 at the time of writing. Considering the form, matchup, and projection, this is a high win-probability play and one that still shows value even at -155.
If this bottom of this market falls out, a solid pivot is to his Over 5.5 hits allowed at -120 or better, which is a play we gave out this morning on THE BAT X release show.
Jordan Lyles prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-140)
Not intended for use in MA.
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