Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Buxton Back in the Saddle

Prop bet #1: Chase (not) the ace

It feels like this is an evergreen statement, but Colorado Rockies pitching is a sad state of affairs. You know things aren’t pretty when you are handing the ball to Chase Anderson every fifth game. 

Anderson is little more than a glorified innings eater at this point and he gets thrown to the wolves once again as he’ll take the mound at Minute Maid Park to take on the defending World Series champion Houston Astros on Wednesday.

Anderson is having a tough go of things ever since joining the Rockies rotation in mid-May, getting lit up to the tune of a 5.59 expected ERA while surrendering a .284 expected batting average and a .473 expected slugging percentage to opponents. He is also striking out just 16.7% of the batters he is facing, with all of those numbers ranking in the Bottom 14% of MLB or worse.

But the Rockies don’t seem to care. He still averages 20.7 batters faced per start, and since they leave him in, the hits can rack up quickly. Anderson is allowing a whopping 12.6 hits per nine innings over his last eight starts and has allowed six or more knocks in five of those eight appearances.

And things won’t get any easier today against a deep Astros lineup. Houston has been solid, if unspectacular, vs. right-handers this season, ranking 17th in batting average, 16th in OPS, and 14th in wRC+ but you can tell this lineup is just getting warmed up for the second half.

Since June 1, the Astros rank eighth in batting average, sixth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+. I’m betting they keep trending in that direction, and take advantage of this matchup by sending Anderson Over his hits-allowed prop of 5.5.

Chase Anderson prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: In E-Rod we trust

The Detroit Tigers get a big boost, as Eduardo Rodriguez returns to the rotation and will be on the mound for tonight’s matchup against the Oakland A’s.

Rodriguez was one of the few bright spots for the Tigers early on. The left-hander was putting up Cy Young-worthy numbers, pitching to a 3.10 xERA while limiting opponents to a .229 xBA and a .356 xSLG over his first 11 starts before suffering a finger injury that cost him over a month of action. 

Rodriguez was also striking out a solid 25.5% of the batters he was facing, which was in the 62 percentile. And that’s where my focus is today as he stares across at the sad Oakland lineup.

It’s old news at this point but the A’s stink, and that doesn’t change when they face southpaws. Oakland ranks 27th in batting average, 28th in OPS, 25th in wRC+, and 20th in K-rate, striking out 23.1% of the time vs. left-handed pitchers this season. 

So, I was surprised to see Rodriguez’s strikeout total on the board for this matchup at a low 4.5. Now, generally, speaking teams tend to ease starters back in coming off the injured list but I believe that’s giving us some value here.

The Tigers need good innings, badly. And if Rodriguez is healthy enough to start you have to think there will be little to no restrictions on him. This means he can quickly get back to his workhorse ways. The lefty averaged 23.9 batters faced and 96.4 pitches per start prior to the injury.

If he goes anywhere close to that today, he should go Over 4.5 Ks vs. the A’s. A number he had eclipsed in eight consecutive starts and in nine of 11 overall this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Going Buck wild

All baseball nerds know that the ceiling for Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton is one of the best players in baseball and one of the game’s most dangerous hitters if everything can fall in place (ie. can he stay healthy). 

In the first half of 2023, we’ve seen flashes of it, but a few smaller injuries have prevented him from really finding his rhythm at the dish. Overall, Buxton is hitting .216 with a .763 OPS but a breakout could be on the horizon.

Buxton has collected hits in five of his last six games, good for a .346 average and a 1.112 OPS. That includes a double, two dingers, and just four strikeouts. So, he’s seeing the ball well and I’m betting that continues tonight against the lowly Kansas City Royals.

KC hands the ball to prospect Alec Marsh, a 25-year-old right-hander who got a rude welcome to the big leagues. His first career start came against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who tagged him for five runs on six hits, including two home runs while he struck out five and walked four in four innings of work.

Five innings is probably the max for Marsh here. Then he’ll hand the ball off to a KC bullpen that ranks 19th in xFIP. This is a great matchup for Buxton who has shown more power vs. right-handers this season with a .806 OPS.

Getting Over 1.5 on Buxton’s total bases at a +130 price tag is a solid play today.

Byron Buxton prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)