Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bello Tosses a Gem vs Okakland

Prop bet #1: Ciao, Bello

Getting shutout by the Oakland Athletics is a tough look, but the Boston Red Sox are in a great spot to bounce back when they hand the ball to Brayan Bello for Wednesday’s series finale.

Overall, the Red Sox have been playing very well lately, going 10-3 in the month of July and it looks like they really have something in their young right-hander.

Bello is pitching to a solid 3.78 expected ERA this season, but he’s really picked up his game of late. The 24-year-old has recorded a quality start in seven consecutive outings, pitching to a 2.51 ERA and limiting opponents to a .213 batting average.

Obviously, the matchup with the A’s is a good one. They rank dead last in baseball when it comes to batting average and OPS when facing right-handed pitching.

Oakland counters Bello with Ken Waldichuk. The left-hander is pitching to a 5.25 xERA, and surrendering a .442 expected slugging percentage to opponents. Waldichuk also struggles with his command, ranking in the Bottom 7% in walk rate in the MLB. So, he should have his hands full with this Boston lineup.

Led by a surging Rafael Devers, the Red Sox lead the MLB in batting average and OPS since the start of July. 

I’m betting the Red Sox will get a strong performance from Bello here. And he should get enough support from the offense today to record a win for the fifth time in his last six starts. 

Brayan Bello prop: To record a win (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Continued Production

Shohei Ohtani. GOAT. Run production. Yada, yada, yada, go bet the Over on Ohtani’s 0.5 RBIs tonight.

If you need more information than that, fine. Ohtani is the American League MVP. Full stop. Maybe even if he does get traded to a National League team. He leads the MLB in home runs, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. The Los Angeles Angels’ superstar is also on pace to destroy his personal best for RBIs in a season, already driving in 76 runs. Oh, he’s a pretty damn good pitcher too.

Ohtani has been an absolute monster when it comes run production. He has driven in more than a run a game over his last 37 games and it doesn’t hurt that he’s hitting .376 with a 1.400 OPS, including 20 dingers over that stretch.

I’m betting he keeps that up in tonight’s matchup against Carlos Rodon and the New York Yankees.

Rodon is making just his third start of the season thanks to a forearm injury that kept the left-hander out until July and you can see he is still trying to knock the rust off. Rodon has allowed six earned runs on eight hits with eight strikeouts over 10 1/3 innings of work. And that was against the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies. 

And if you think the lefty-lefty splits will bother Ohtani, think again. The Angels’ two-way star still slugs .625 with a .981 OPS when digging in against southpaws this season. At +205 I can't stay away from backing Ohtani to drive in another run tonight — something he's done in four straight games.

Shohei Ohtani prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+205 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Hot Ketel

Scoreboards across Major League Baseball were popping off last night.

None more so than the one at Truist Park where the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves threw haymaker after haymaker at one another last night. The D-backs eventually came out on top in a crazy 16-13 final and there is at least one Arizona player I’m backing to stay hot in tonight’s matchup.

That is second baseman Ketel Marte. The D-backs’ elder statesman has really locked in after a slow start to the season. But since the start of June, Marte is hitting .296 with a .928 OPS. That includes going 3-6 with two doubles in last night’s slugfest vs. the Braves.

Tonight, he will face off against Charlie Morton. The veteran right-hander has strung together some solid starts, but a word to describe his 2023 campaign could be average. Morton is pitching to a 4.44 xERA while surrendering a .250 xBA and a .412 xSlugging to opponents. All are in the 40th percentile or worse.

Morton also gives up a higher OPS to left-handed hitters, and Marte is a better hitter from the left side with a .313 average and a .888 OPS. 

Marte has also been racking up the doubles since coming out of the break with four in four games. At +155, Marte looks like a very good bet to go Over 1.5 total bases. Something he has done in five of his last seven games.

Ketel Marte prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+155 at bet365)