Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Elly Keeps Cruzing Saturday

Hogan's heroes

Carlos Correa isn’t having the kind of season the Minnesota Twins paid him for when they signed the superstar shortstop before the 2022 season. While Correa lived up to expectations last year, he’s hitting just .228 with a .704 OPS in 2023, both of which would be the worst numbers of his nine-year career.

Things have looked a bit better for Correa lately. Over his last nine games, he’s hitting .314, though he’s still struggling to find much power, with just two extra-base hits and a single run batted in over that span. But at least he’s putting the ball in play now, which is a promising sign after he failed to hit above .230 in any full month through June. 

While his numbers are down, Correa is still most effective against lefthanded pitching, with an OPS that is 36 points higher against southpaws. He’ll get a particularly juicy spot on Saturday night, as he gets to face off against Oakland starter Hogan Harris.

Harris has been nothing short of terrible for the Athletics this season. The 26-year-old rookie has nine appearances (four as a starter), and has thrown to a 6.07 ERA. He is allowing nearly a hit per inning, and righthanded batters have a .765 OPS against him. In his last two starts, he’s given up 11 earned runs on 17 hits over just 10 innings.

This is a dream scenario for Correa, who should feast on Harris and his stuff, which is just uncompetitive at the MLB level. Correa is already heating up with 11 hits in his last nine games, and this is a perfect opportunity to build on that momentum. I’m looking for Correa to do some damage tonight against the woeful Athletics pitching staff, whether that’s Harris or their equally vulnerable bullpen.

Carlos Correa prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Seeing ghosts

The Mets are bad. They were terrible again last night, finishing with just one hit — a first-inning leadoff double by Brandon Nimmo — in a 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers that left the Citi Field crowd booing once again at the conclusion. We’re about at the point where this can be called a lost season for the Mets.

However, there has been at least one surprising bright spot in New York. Japanese import Kodai Senga has made an impressive MLB debut at age 30, beguiling opposing batters with what he calls his “ghost forkball.” 

In reality, the pitch is something of a hybrid of a splitter and a traditional forkball, usually coming into batters at around 85 mph and dropping sharply through the strike zone. That pitch helped Senga earn an invitation to the All-Star Game, as he went 7-5 with a 3.31 ERA over the first half of the year.

While Senga has been merely good rather than spectacular, his strikeout numbers have been otherworldly. In 89.2 innings, he has struck out 113 batters, good for 11.3 Ks per nine innings. He was only getting better at finishing off batters as the All-Star break approached, striking out 20 hitters in 13 innings over his last two starts.

Senga gets most of his strikeouts via the ghost forkball. And while this is anecdotal, it stands to reason that this is a pitch that’s especially hard to deal with the first time you see it. We do know that two divisional rivals, the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies, have seen Senga twice and struck out at a lower rate the second time around.

The Dodgers haven’t seen Senga yet, however, and will get their first taste of him on Saturday night. That’s a recipe for a lot of swings and misses at the ghost forkball. I’m banking on Senga to fill up his K count tonight, even if the Mets continue to disappoint.

Kodai Senga prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+135)

Cruz control

On June 6, a friend of mine had tickets to see the Louisville Bats, the Triple-A affiliate of the Cincinnati Reds. The point was to see prospect Elly De La Cruz in person. Unfortunately for my friend  — but fortunately for the rest of the world — that was the exact day De La Cruz was called up to the majors, where he has become one of the biggest rookie sensations we’ve seen in years.

Everyone wants a piece of De La Cruz. Fans want to see him in person. Collectors want his first baseball cards. And bettors want to bank on him accomplishing more amazing feats every time he steps up to the plate.

In his first 31 MLB games, De La Cruz is hitting .315 with four homers and an .860 OPS, while also stealing 16 bases. The kid can do it all, and combines it with sterling defense on the left side of the infield. We’re watching the rise of a potential legend, and he’s doing it all at just 21 years of age.

A switch hitter, De La Cruz has shown better bat skills from the left side of the plate. In just 102 plate appearances against righthanded pitching, he’s hit .333 with four homers, along with nine other extra-base hits. If you want to bet on this kid to do something spectacular right now, your best shot is when he’s up against a righty.

Tonight, De La Cruz gets just that opportunity against struggling Milwaukee Brewers starter Freddy Peralta. The former All-Star is just 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA this year, easily the worst stretch he’s had since 2019. 

The most concerning issue for Peralta is just how easy it has been for batters to take him deep. Peralta is allowing a whopping 1.6 homers per nine innings. The 16 long balls he’s given up this year are already the most he has allowed in a season, and we’re only in July.

There’s never a guarantee that anyone will go deep in a given game. However, the stars are aligned to make De La Cruz’s odds of adding a homer to his tally tonight as good as they could possibly be. We can still get a generous number on this prop, so I’m betting on De La Cruz to add another memorable moment to his legacy against Peralta tonight.

Elly De La Cruz prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+475)