Halfway through the week and there are plenty of opportunities to keep stacking wins.
I have a couple of player props that I absolutely love tonight, with plenty of value on a few red hot bats and a left hander in a prime spot to dominate.
Let's dive in on my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, July 29.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
Double | Home Run | <<+307 | +192>> |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 0.5 Total Hits | -137 |
 Joey Cantillo |
Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +125 |
Yordan Alvarez Double (+307) | Home Run (+192)
When backing a player, I am expecting extra bases. With how awful the prices are on Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez to go Over 1.5 total bases or Over on his hits, runs, and RBI prop, I'd rather attack this another way by putting a half unit on both his home run and double props.
The big fella draws struggling right hander Grayson Rodriguez this evening. The Los Angeles Angels starter has been crushed by left handed hitters this season, posting a 10.53 ERA while allowing 53% hard contact and producing just a 27% ground ball rate. Those lefties have also generated a .364 xBA, .614 xSLG, and .445 xwOBA against him.
Alvarez covers 100% of Rodriguez's pitch mix, and when graded as elite on Batters-Box this season, he has homered in 30% of his 40 games.
Do not pay the juice on Alvarez today. Take the value on his extra base hit props instead.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, SCHN
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Hits (-137)
I simply cannot pass up Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami to record a hit at -137 this evening.
I am well aware that New York Yankees right hander Cam Schlittler is on the mound, but Murakami covers nearly 100% of his arsenal, according to Batters-Box, where he also owns an elite rating. Through 41 elite-rated matchups this season, the White Sox rookie has recorded a hit 70.73% of the time.
Schlittler's dominance aside, he throws his fastball and cutter 77.8% of the time. Against those two offerings, Murakami owns at least a .385 expected batting average, a 1.047 OPS, and generates at least 58% hard contact.
The Yankees right hander has also shown some vulnerability against left handed hitters lately. The last 30 lefties he has faced own a .418 expected batting average and a .663 expected slugging percentage, while producing a 57% hard hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate.
At -137 for the floor, I have no problem paying the juice. I'd play this all the way up to -150.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN, CHSN
Joey Cantillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+125)
Despite Gavin Williams completely dominating the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, I think Cleveland Guardians left hander Joey Cantillo can replicate that success tonight.
Entering Wednesday with a strong Batters-Box rating, Cantillo also owns one of the highest projected strikeout rates on the slate. He draws a lineup featuring seven hitters with above league average strikeout rates and one elite bat. His ability to miss bats has only improved lately, posting a strikeout rate of nearly 30% over his last three outings.
The Reds have struggled to avoid strikeouts against left handed pitching this season. Over their last 60 at-bats against southpaws, six hitters own strikeout rates above 21.7%, five sit at 26.7% or higher, and three are north of 30%. This feels like another spot where Cantillo can pile up the punchouts.
I would play this down to +120, but as always, shop around and grab the best number you can.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, CLEG
- Prop picks: 347-678, -5.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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