Ready to finish the weekend in the green?
A star-studded Sunday pitching menu featuring German Marquez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Paul Skenes gives us plenty of high-value targets to target on today's betting card.
Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 19.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 German Marquez |
Under 15.5 Outs | -152 |
 Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -136 |
 Paul Skenes |
Over 7.5 Strikeouts | +116 |
German Marquez Under 15.5 Outs (-152)
I am always a fan of going out of my way to fade San Diego Padres starter Germán Márquez because it feels like he is constantly due for a blowup outing.
This afternoon, he draws a Kansas City Royals lineup loaded with elite rated hitters, six to be exact, along with three more carrying strong ratings, per Batters-Box. Kansas City's average hitter matchup rating sits well above elite, giving them the highest rated offense on the slate.
We know the Royals have struggled offensively this season, but they have been a different team at home. Over their last 12 home games, they own a 113 wRC+, .332 wOBA, and .750 OPS.
Márquez has also been in rough form, posting a 6.26 ERA, 4.98 xERA, and 1.56 WHIP across his last five starts. During that stretch, he has allowed over 40% hard contact while managing just a 12.75% strikeout rate and nearly a 14% walk rate.
I think Kansas City gets to him early and often. If you're not a fan of laying juice, I like the under 14.5 outs recorded plus money.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, SDPA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-136)
I think Yoshinobu Yamamoto is in a great spot to go over his strikeout prop this afternoon as he draws a New York Yankees lineup featuring nine hitters with strikeout rates above the league average. The Los Angeles Dodgers All-Star owns an elite rating on Batters-Box and also benefits from an elite matchup strikeout rate.
In 48 games with an elite rating, Yamamoto has gone over this prop nearly 48% of the time. He has been even better in 23 games with an elite matchup strikeout rate, cashing this number 52.17% of the time.
While the Yankees have done a better job limiting strikeouts recently, they have still posted a strikeout rate around 28% over their last 12 games after sitting just under 30% across their previous 21.
I think Yamamoto has a great chance to punch out at least seven hitters this afternoon.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, SNLA
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+116)
Despite Paul Skenes' slight slump over his last few starts, a matchup against this Cleveland Guardians lineup feels like the perfect opportunity to get back on track. Cleveland has been extremely swing happy lately, setting Skenes up to clear his strikeout prop this afternoon.
Over their last 21 games, the Guardians own a 26.5% strikeout rate, and that number has climbed to 27.7% over their last six.
Skenes enters with an elite pitcher rating and an elite matchup strikeout rate on Batters-Box. He has recorded 7+ strikeouts in nearly 60% of his starts and 8+ strikeouts 41% of the time. He has also logged at least seven strikeouts in each of his last 10 games with an elite strikeout rate. We just need one more to cash at plus money.
I think it's worth taking a shot on the over 7.5 because of the price, but if you'd rather lean on the trends, play the over 6.5 and pay the juice.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, SNP
- Prop picks: 308-578, -8.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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