The Philadelphia Phillies will look to close out a series win as they host the New York Mets in a rubber match this afternoon.
Nolan McLean gives his side a clear advantage in this game, which is why I'm backing New York to win in my Mets vs. Phillies predictions.
Read on to see my free MLB picks for Sunday, July 19.
Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Mets (-131)
Despite a handful of rough starts this season, Nolan McLean remains a rare bright spot for the New York Mets.
McLean is among the MLB leaders in fastball run value, striking out 27.9% of the batters he faces, and holds opponents to a 34.7% hard-hit rate.
McLean faces off against Philadelphia Phillies starter Alan Rangel (0-2, 4.19 ERA), who has only two career starts and gave up four earned runs in four innings of work when he pitched against New York earlier this year.
I'm backing the Mets to win at -140 or better.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies have generated air pulls off just 8.6% of sinkers thrown by righties this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the majors. That's McLean's favorite pitch, which he throws 34% of the time.
Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)
For the Mets to win, they almost need to play to a low score, as their offense remains one of the worst in MLB. New York ranks second-to-last in wOBA (.301), has the third-lowest OPS in the league (.682), and averages just 4.07 runs per game.
The Mets have shown they can do a little damage off of Rangel, but they haven't scored more than four runs in any of their last five games.
New York has played to the Under in four straight games, and I like the Under again at even money or better.
- ML/RL bets: 13-23, -10.84 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-21, -8.96 units
Mets vs Phillies weather
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Mets -127 | Phillies +122
- Run line: Mets -1.5 (+127) | Phillies +1.5 (-133)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+113)
Mets vs Phillies trend
The Mets are 4-2 straight up in McLean's last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Sunday, July 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NBCSP |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (6-6, 3.52 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Alan Rangel (0-2, 4.19 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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