A full Friday slate is headlined by the Dodgers, who are looking to snap out of their losing ways after getting swept in back-to-back series.
Here’s where my head is at tonight, with my three favorite MLB player props for Friday, Aug. 7.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Merrill Kelly |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +113 |
 Parker Messick |
Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -131 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI | +106 |
Merrill Kelly Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+113)
I asked this in our moneyline predictions article today: Is there another team in baseball that needs a win more than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are coming off being swept in back-to-back series?
I say no, which is why I love Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly to stay under 3.5 strikeouts.
Kelly owns the lowest average strikeout rate while taking on the highest-rated lineup this evening, per Batters-Box’s current-season dataset.
Through an extremely small sample size of 11 games with a poorly rated matchup strikeout rate, Kelly has stayed Under this prop 54.55% of the time, Under 5+ strikeouts 63% of the time, and Under 6+ strikeouts 72% of the time.
Even during the Dodgers’ losing streak, their strikeout rate remains below 18%. Even more impressive, it has been below 20% over their last 12 games.
On the road this season, they own the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Over their last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, only two batters are above 23.3%.
Bounce Back City, USA for the Dodgers this evening. Take this down to even money.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Spectrum SportsNet LA
Parker Messick Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-131)
After Boston Red Sox left-hander Ranger Suarez had one of the shortest leashes of all time, allowing four runs on 70 pitches, he sadly still stayed Under his 5.5 strikeouts against the Chicago White Sox.
Now we look to back another southpaw to get the job done. Cleveland Guardians starter Parker Messick feels like he is in a great spot to shove against the White Sox.
Across the White Sox’s last 60 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, only one hitter has a strikeout rate below 22%. That leaves at least eight other bats struggling against left-handed pitching.
Overall this season against left-handed pitching, the White Sox own a near 25% strikeout rate.
Messick has posted a 25.35% strikeout rate over his last three starts, plus a 24.48% strikeout rate overall on the road this season.
If you do not want to pay the juice, alt this to 6.5 strikeouts.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEGaurdians.TV, Chicago Sports Network
Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+106)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are desperate for a win, and I think it starts with superstar Shohei Ohtani kicking things off early.
The reigning MVP finds himself with the No. 1 rating on both of Batters-Box’s datasets. On top of that, he covers 85.6% of Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly’s pitch mix.
In 26 elite-rated games this season, Ohtani has gone Over this prop 53.85% of the time. On top of that, he has recorded 2+ hits 38% of the time and left the yard 27% of the time.
His recent form is very impressive, with a .308 BA, .400 OBP, and 1.054 OPS, making 55% hard contact and posting a 15% barrel rate. Ohtani is easily the hottest bat in this semi-lifeless Dodgers lineup.
Kelly has been getting torched by left-handed hitters all season long, and those numbers have not improved recently.
The last 60 he's faced own a .387 xBA, .616 xSLG, and .371 xwOBA. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks starter is allowing a 56% hard-hit rate and 2.02 HR/9.
I would take this down to even money.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Spectrum SportsNet LA
- Prop picks: 361-727, -27.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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