Phillies vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Phils Won't Go Quietly

The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies will meet Monday night in L.A. to close the book on the day's baseball.

Neither team has gotten off to the start they expected. The Phillies are 15-14, while the Dodgers are just one win better. Philly has had mixed reasons for its slow start, and come into this one after a Sunday Night Baseball loss to the Houston Astros. The Dodgers have won three straight after a weekend affair with the St. Louis Cardinals, but before then, they had lost two of their previous three.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Dodgers.

Phillies vs Dodgers odds

Phillies vs Dodgers predictions

This is an exciting matchup with a lot of unknowns. With that said, the best bet for me in this matchup is that the Phillies hang around, and I'm grabbing the value on them in the run line market.

Believe it or not, the Dodgers are just 12-15 on the run line as favorites this season. That's a winning record of just 44%, and a far cry from their rate of 60% a season ago. Conversely, while Philly has a mediocre record, they have been able to hang around in most of their contests. As an underdog this season, they've lost more games by one run than by multiple runs. The Phils own a strong bullpen that's kept them in games, and that bullpen is pretty well-rested today.

That bullpen has also posted some impressive numbers this season. Over the past two weeks, Philly has posted a reliever ERA of under 1.00. The reverse of that is the Dodgers' bullpen, which has had its issues and could be healthier. Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes are hurt. Meanwhile, according to Rotowire, its primary two relievers out of the pen have seen a considerable workload over the last three games. That gives Philly a massive advantage late.

I start with the bullpen instead of the starting pitchers because of how little we know about what to expect from these starters — especially the Dodgers starter. Tony Gonsolin had shown Cy Young stuff in the past, but not only will this game be his second start post-injury, but he didn't look good in his first outing of the year. He lacked command, posted an expected ERA over 6.00 (despite giving up no earned runs), and walked 21% of the batters he faced.

That last point is significant here. Philly walks at an average rate, but they don't chase pitches. So if they can run the count up on him, they can get into the bullpen quicker, which should work significantly to their advantage.

The Dodgers will come into this matchup hobbled and still finding their stride in the season. J.D. Martinez is a big bat missing, along with Miguel Rojas, and that leaves some big holes in their lineup.

Unlike years past, I don't think this Dodgers team has overwhelming talent against even a struggling Phillies team. Given some of the situational aspects, like the bullpen, I'll take some value here. My projections made this price closer to -160.

My best bet: Phillies +1.5 (-140 at bet365)

Phillies vs Dodgers moneyline analysis

I saw more of an edge on the run line than on the moneyline price here.

The Phillies should be able to hang around, but even a much-maligned Dodgers team still seems to find clutch hits in close games, and Philadelphia starter Taijuan Walker hasn't looked like himself to start the season.

In a vacuum, I'm a fan of backing a veteran pitcher in this spot, as he's coming off his worst start of the season. However, supporting a pitcher with some barrel problems and hard-hit issues takes a lot of work against L.A.

The key in this matchup is if he can get the Dodgers' hitters to chase. It's the foundation of his success with a chase rate that sets him in the Top 20 percentile of baseball. The Dodgers are chasing the fewest pitches of any team in the league this year, which adds to the cloudiness of this matchup.

Phillies vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis

I'm staying far away from this total. The uncertainty on the mound makes it a tricky endeavor.

I like the value of the Phillies hanging around here, but I don't have much of a feel when it comes to the total. My projections priced this total at 8, which is currently where the market also views it. While it's nothing official, I may dabble in some in-game Under action on the Dodgers team total, but only if they score early. I like the Phillies' bullpen to lock things down late, as I've explained above. Outside of that, there's no play here for me.

The Under has been a profitable wager when Philadelphia takes the diamond. It's games have gone Under in four straight, and in the last four to begin a series. However, the recent history between these two, when they met in California, has seen some high-scoring games, with three straight going Over.

Phillies vs Dodgers game info

Phillies vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (2-1, 4.97 ERA): Like his counterpart, there's plenty of uncertainty around Walker. He's battled a lot of nagging injuries over the last two seasons, and to me, he hasn't looked like himself this season. He's laid off the fastball and gone to the splitter significantly more. That pitch has hurt him too, as batters are hitting .263 against it while slugging .316. That's not awful, but it's certainly different from the numbers you'd want for a pitch you consider your top one. His last outing came against the Seattle Mariners, where he gave up five earned runs on five hits through just over four innings.

Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Gonsolin has had a strange start to the season. He threw 65 pitches to the Pittsburgh Pirates in his opening start before exiting early. While he allowed no runs, his command looked suspect, as he threw more balls than strikes. We know what Gonsolin has been in the past. Still, it's fair to say that there's a remarkable uncertainty about what will happen this season. The command wasn't the only issue, as his fastball velocity reached career lows. Again, it was a short start and a small data point, but it's made season expectations somewhat cloudy.

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The Phillies are 4-1 in the last five meetings in L.A. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers

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