The Los Angeles Dodgers break out the brooms as they attempt a three-game series sweep of the visiting Washington National on Sunday afternoon.
The Dodgers edged the Nationals 1-0 on Friday then won a 9-5 slugfest Saturday in this battle of the previous two World Series winners. Sunday’s finale features one of the best pitching matchups of the young 2021 MLB betting season with a total of six Cy Young Awards sharing the mound when respective aces Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw square off.
Here are our favorite free MLB picks and predictions for National vs. Dodgers on April 11.
Nationals vs Dodgers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonClayton Kershaw and Los Angeles opened -205 at DraftKings on Saturday night, and as of 1:30 p.m. ET today, the moneyline is down to -167. The Dodgers are taking 63 percent of tickets, but the Nationals are landing 61 percent of money. The total opened at 8 and went to 7.5 in short order Saturday night, and it's now 7.5 (Under -117), with 60 percent of tickets/61 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNationals vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (0-0, 6.00 ERA): Scherzer got lit up for four home runs versus Atlanta in his Opening Day start for the Nats. The right-hander did strike out nine and avoided a single walk through six innings, settling down in his three final frames.
Clayton Kershaw (1-1, 4.26 ERA): Kershaw overcame a bumpy opening start to 2021 with seven solid innings at Oakland on April 6, in which he allowed just one run on four hits while striking out eight batters. He’s 12-3 over 17 career appearances versus Washington, touting a 2.23 ERA in those meetings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Josh Harrison 2B (Out), Josh Bell 1B (Out), Yan Gomes C (Out), Jordy Mercer SS (Out), Tanner Rainey RP (Out), Brad Hand RP (Out), Will Harris RP (Out).
Dodgers: Mookie Betts OF (Out), Cody Bellinger OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between the National and Dodgers in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.
Runline pick
The Nationals have lost four straight heading into Sunday afternoon’s game, suffering their most recent defeat thanks to a disastrous second inning in Saturday’s tilt with Los Angeles. The Dodgers blasted Washington for five runs in that frame and the Nats’ struggled to keep up, fielding a patchwork lineup due to COVID-19 issues sidelining some key cogs.
Washington did muster five runs in the Game 2 loss but has witnessed its bats come up short at key times in the past two games, most recently leaving nine runners on base Saturday—including a bases-loaded strikeout from Andrew Stevenson in the sixth inning.
Scoring will be harder to come by with Kershaw and his sizzling slider toeing the rubber. The left-hander was sharp in his second start of the season, overcoming some troubles in the opening innings to put away 20 of the final 22 batters faced versus the A’s last Tuesday.
The Dodgers’ bats had sputtered a bit in the three games prior, plating a collective nine runs in those contests, but looked much better against Washington on Saturday, despite missing Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger. Los Angeles scored nine runs on nine hits with the lion’s share of that work coming from the top of the order.
With Kershaw making his third start of 2021 and rounding into form, we like the Dodgers on the runline in this National League heavyweight bout.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles runline -1.5 (+119)
Over/Under pick
Scherzer’s home run issues in his first start will sort themselves out in his second go-around of the year, especially with the Dodgers lacking some pop in the lineup. Without Betts and Bellinger's big bats to anchor the order, the Dodgers have hit just two home runs in their last three games.
Scherzer has pitched well versus Los Angeles’ stacked lineup for his career, owning a 2.76 ERA and a 4.38 K/BB ratio over 14 games, and faces a Dodgers batting order ranked seventh in strikeouts in the NL heading into Sunday.
With two all-time great aces on the hill and both lineups missing important ingredients, we like this one to stay Under the total—even after the early move from eight runs to 7.5.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-105)
Nationals vs Dodgers betting card
- Los Angeles runline -1.5 (+119)
- Under 7.5 (-105)
Picks made on 4/11/2021 at 10:32 a.m. ET
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