We've got a busy Sunday of baseball with 14 games on the slate and the final contest on the MLB betting board is an NL East matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves opened their season by getting swept by the Phillies on the road but have won the last two games in this series at home and are installed as -157 MLB betting favorites tonight.
Here are our best free Phillies vs. Braves picks and predictions for Sunday, April 11, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAtlanta landed on FanDuel's odds board at -162 Saturday evening, bottomed out at -158, peaked at -190 and is -180 at 4 p.m. ET. The Braves are netting 62 percent of tickets and 60 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total opened at 9 and a couple of times poked up to 9.5, where it sits now at a price of Under -118, with 51 percent of tickets/70 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Matt Moore (0-0, 5.40 ERA): Moore is coming off a start against the Mets where he gave up four hits and two runs while walking four batters before getting the hook midway through the fourth inning. The lefty had mixed results during spring training and pitched last season in Japan, where he posted a 2.65 ERA with Fukuoka of the NPB.
Drew Smyly (0-0, 3,00 ERA): Smyly looked solid in his first start of the year against the Nationals last week, giving up four runs over six innings but only two of those runs were earned and he also racked up eight strikeouts. The southpaw has bounced around the majors since recovering from Tommy John surgery, pitching for four clubs since 2019.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Vince Velasquez RP (Questionable).
Braves: Chris Martin RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 43-19 in their last 62 home games while the Phillies are 11-27 in their previous 38 contests on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Braves began the season with four straight losses, including three in Philadelphia. But they've since turned things around and have won four in a row, including the first two contests in this three-game set.
The big difference for the Braves has been their improved play at the plate. They are batting .263 and plating 5.5 runs per game over their last four contests after hitting just .148 and averaging 2.0 runs per game over their first four games of the season.
Given the Braves' talented lineup and the fact that they ranked near the top of the NL in scoring over the last two seasons, we're confident that their recent performances are more in line with how they'll produce the rest of the way.
While it's difficult to trust the starting pitcher for either team, Smyly was sharper in his first game of the season while Moore struggled with his control.
Smyly also looked decent in seven starts with the Giants last season, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP across 26 1-3 innings. With Smyly now almost four years removed from Tommy John surgery he's beginning to show flashes of the velocity he had prior to that injury.
With Atlanta 55-21 in its last 76 games as a home fave, take the Braves on the moneyline.
PREDICTION: Atlanta ML (-157)
Over/Under pick
We mentioned that we don't really trust either starter in this one. Moore has only pitched 13 innings in the major leagues since 2019 and in his last two seasons as a rotation pitcher he posted a 6.79 ERA with Texas in 2018 and a 5.52 ERA with San Francisco the previous year.
While Smyly has shown signs of getting his velocity back, he's still just two years removed from a brutal campaign where he had a 6.26 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP across 25 games for the Rangers and Phillies.
The Braves might have started their season with some ugly performances at the plate but this is a loaded lineup led by dangerous sluggers like Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr.
Atlanta was second in the majors with 5.62 runs per game last season and upped that number to 6.09 runs per game at home. The Phillies weren't too far behind, ranking fifth in scoring with 5.10 runs/game.
With the Braves going 15-7-2 O/U in their last 24 games as a home favorite and also going above the total in five of the last six meetings between these NL East rivals in Atlanta, back the Over again.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-110)
Phillies vs Braves betting card
- Atlanta ML (-157)
- Over 9 (-110)
Picks made on 4/11/2021 at 10:26 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Phillies vs. Braves picks, you could win $21.25 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
