Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include the Tigers at plus money on the road against Paul Skenes
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 19.
MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 19
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Tigersvs  Pirates |
+147 |
 Padresvs  Mets |
-127 |
 Bravesvs  Twins |
-104 |
 White Soxvs  Cubs |
-141 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Red Sox |
+153 |
 Marlinsvs  Phillies |
+117 |
 Yankeesvs  Orioles |
+113 |
 Giantsvs  Guardians |
-208 |
 Cardinalsvs  Reds |
+133 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Rays |
-194 |
 Athleticsvs  Royals |
-135 |
 Marinersvs  Brewers |
+117 |
 Nationalsvs  Rangers |
+122 |
 Angelsvs  Astros |
+144 |
 Dodgersvs  Rockies |
-186 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-19.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 19
Tigers vs Pirates: Tigers (+147)
Tigers win probability: 60%
With how terrible right-hander Paul Skenes has been over his last five starts, and with the books continuing to give us the "Skenes Tax," the Tigers are the play.
The Tigers' offense has been fantastic across the last few weeks, sporting a 130 wRC+, .354 wOBA and .804 OPS over their last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates' bats have gone cold, just like their star pitcher.
Padres vs Mets: Padres (-127)
Padres win probability: 56%
Michael King takes the mound for the Padres this evening, owning a 3.72 ERA over his last five outings while limiting opposing hitters to just a 29% hard-hit rate. The Padres' offense has been scorching hot over the last month, posting a 122 wRC+, .340 wOBA, and .767 OPS.
The Mets' bats have gone cold across their last six games, with just a 96 wRC+, .303 wOBA, and .682 OPS. Additionally, Robert Stock is on the mound for them, and he's posted a 6.57 ERA through three outings this season.
At -127, taking the Padres is a great price.
Braves vs Twins: Braves (-104)
Braves win probability: 51%
Minnesota Twins starter Taj Bradley has been great this season at Target Field. But he's fallen off a cliff over his last three starts. The right-hander owns a 6.60 ERA and 1.93 WHIP during that stretch while walking hitters at a 13.33% clip. Bradley looked like he was turning a new leaf, until he wasn't.
Atlanta's bats are still cold, but taking on a pitcher who relies heavily on his fastball could be exactly what the lineup needs to get back on track.
White Sox vs Cubs: Cubs (-141)
Cubs win probability: 58%
The Cubs just have the White Sox's number in this series. It's clear the Cubs are looking to get their revenge after losing the initial series a few months back.
The White Sox send out Jose Urquidy, who owns an 8.10 ERA this season. He owns a 14.40 ERA and a 3.00 WHIP over his last three appearances. His arm won't instill much confidence in this White Sox team.
The only way the White Sox have a chance is if they pounce on Clay Holmes early and get to the Cubs' bullpen. That seems like an unlikely scenario given how well Holmes has been pitching.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox: Diamondbacks (+153)
Diamondbacks win probability: 40%
The Red Sox at $1.50 doesn't feel like an attractive price to pay when the Diamondbacks have been just as good. Arizona sends out Brandon Pfaadt, who looks as good as he did during the 2023 postseason. The young right-hander has posted a 0.00 ERA over his last three starts while limiting hard contact and barrels.
The Diamondbacks have been maintaining a 117 wRC+, .779 OPS, and .190 ISO over their last 12 games.
On the other side, Boston left-hander Payton Tolle is on the mound, and he's been unbelievable. The club's bats look great as well, but with how well both sides have been performing, the dog carries more value.
Marlins vs Phillies: Marlins (+117)
Marlins win probability: 46%
Aaron Nola has looked better in his last few starts, but Sandy Alcantara has been lights out. The Marlins' right-hander owns a 1.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over his last five outings while allowing minimal hard contact and barrels.
The bats have been hot for the Fightin' Fish, and they're well worth trusting against a skittish arm.
Yankees vs Orioles: Orioles (+113)
Orioles win probability: 47%
The Yankees own a 73 wRC+ over their last six games, while the Orioles have posted a 139 wRC+ during that same stretch. It's extremely hard to overlook how poorly the Yankees' offense has been, and getting a team this hot at the dish as an underdog is a gift.
Will Warren has been struggling too, producing a 6.41 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over his last three starts. Orioles right-hander Chris Bassitt at least has a 3.77 ERA in the same span.
Take the dog!
Giants vs Guardians: Guardians (-208)
Giants win probability: 68%
No chance we try to back the Giants against a left-handed arm, especially one as good as Parker Messick. San Francisco against left-handed arms owns just a 91 wRC+, .294 wOBA and .661 OPS.
Of course, the price is horrible, but Messick has been nearly untouchable, posting a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Meanwhile, Adrian Houser has an expected road ERA of 5.06.
Guardians or nothing here.
Cardinals vs Reds: Cardinals (+133)
Cardinals win probability: 43%
Snagging the Cardinals as a +133 underdog with how poorly the Reds' bats have been is a gift. Sure, right-hander Chase Burns has been unhittable, but the Reds still have to manage to score runs. Matthew Liberatore has been very solid in his most recent outings, owning a 2.80 xERA and 0.98 ERA over his last three.
The Cardinals have a 116 wRC+, .182 ISO and .334 wOBA over their last six games, while the Reds have an 88 wRC+, .678 OPS and a 25% strikeout rate.
Give me the dog!
Blue Jays vs Reds: Rays (-194)
Rays win probability: 66%
This is written every day here: HOW CAN WE TRUST THE BLUE JAYS? You can't!
The Blue Jays are ice-cold offensively, while the Rays have posted a .807 OPS, .174 ISO, and 132 wRC+ over their last 12 games. Max Scherzer has looked solid in his last few outings, but Father Time is on his tail. Plus, Drew Rasmussen has been nails, owning a 1.20 ERA across his last five starts while allowing little to no hard contact.
Rays or nothing.
Athletics vs Royals: Royals (-135)
Royals win probability: 57%
Death. Taxes. Fading Jeffrey Springs on the mound.
Even after the walk-off win last night, the Royals are the play here. Springs has posted a 9.00 ERA, 6.09 xERA, and 2.15 WHIP over his last five outings. Royals right-hander Seth Lugo hasn't been much better, but he owns a 3.70 xERA over his last five.
Kansas City's bats have been slightly cold, but Springs can bring that offense to life.
Mariners vs Brewers: Mariners (+117)
Mariners win probability: 46%
With how weak the Brewers' bats have become over their last 12 games and how hot the Mariners have been over the last week, snagging Seattle at +117 feels like the move.
The Mariners have a 121 wRC+, .338 wOBA, and .766 OPS over the last week, while owning a walk rate of almost 11%. On the other hand, the Brewers have a wRC+ under 80, .282 wOBA, and .082 ISO over their last six games.
Logan Gilbert has been great on the road this season, with just a 2.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Dustin May has been solid as well, but with how cold Milwaukee has been at the dish, the Mariners offer some value as road underdogs.
Nationals vs Rangers: Nationals (+122)
Nationals win probability: 45%
Are the Nationals as an underdog one of the biggest mispriced teams of the day? Kumar Rocker has gone back to his old ways, posting an 8.10 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and 12.86% walk rate over his last three starts.
On top of that, Cade Cavalli has been soaring over his last five starts, owning a 1.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just an 8% barrel rate.
At +122, trust the Nationals.
Angels vs Astros: Angels (+144)
Angels win probability: 41%
The Los Angeles Angels offer a lot of value tonight against the Astros, especially with how well Walbert Urena has been pitching over his last few starts. He's put up a 2.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across his last five outings. The right-hander is allowing just a 2.9% barrel rate.
Sadly, neither offense has been instilling much confidence, so we'll lean heavily into Urena to get the job done at +144.
Dodgers vs Rockies: Dodgers (-186)
Dodgers win probability: 65%
Kyle Freeland has been reliable recently, but the Dodgers will surely turn it up once the Rockies go to the bullpen. Additionally, the Rockies' offense has been lifeless, posting just a 78 wRC+, .299 wOBA, and .670 OPS over their last six games. The Dodgers own a 107 wRC+, .319 wOBA, and .214 ISO during the same stretch.
It's the Dodgers or nothing here with how cold the Rockies have been.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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