It was a clean sweep here yesterday as the pitching board was as clear as glass. I'm looking to keep that heater rolling into an all-day slate loaded with pitcher predictions and MLB player props.
Chris Bassitt's strikeout market is moving to the Over for a reason. Sandy Alcantara's 100-pitch leash is perfect for his plus-money Over, and Drew Rasmussen's short leash has me reaching for a plus-money Under prop.
These are my favorite MLB pitcher props for Wednesday, Aug. 19.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Chris Bassitt |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +105 |
 Sany Alcantara |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +127 |
 Drew Rasmussen |
Under 17.5 outs | +150 |
Strikeout prop: Chris Bassitt Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
The market is moving on Chris Bassitt’s Over Ks prop, and deservedly so. Bassitt rejoined the rotation off the IL in his last start and went 88 pitches against the Rays, so he is fully stretched out and ready for one of the best strikeout matchups in baseball.
The Yankees are the highest K% team in baseball this summer. In August, their 27.2% K% paces the league, and Bassitt has a solid track record against this lineup from his time with the Blue Jays.
Last season, Bassitt faced the Yankees four times and struck out 25 over 23-plus innings with a solid 1.141 WHIP. His strikeout stuff has dropped this year, but he was a K-per-inning pitcher during his rehab and can get to five Ks in 18 outs today with a 90-plus-pitch leash.
The K% matchup is what gets this across the line, and the 5.23 Ks projected on 91 pitches puts the fair price all the way at -150.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
Strikeout prop: Sandy Alcantara Over 4.5 strikeouts (+127)
Sandy Alcantara is averaging 100.3 pitches per start over his last 10 games and has gone beyond 18 outs in 70% of those. His projections show value on the Under today, but that's based on a 92-pitch projection that could be short by 10 pitches.
The Miami starter's strikeout stuff is the same on the road as at home and better against lefties than righties. Since the start of June, Alcantara is 10-4 to the Over on this prop, but the real chase here is that plus money. He's also faced Philadelphia twice this year and gone Over in both games, allowing just two earned runs over 13 innings.
There aren't a ton of angles here other than the longest-leashed pitcher in baseball with a great price and a profitable record.
This is a bet to +105.
- Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, Marlins.TV
Pitcher out prop: Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 outs (+150)
Drew Rasmussen is a great pitcher, but he's a great pitcher with an 88-pitch leash over his last 10 games and has seen the Blue Jays three times this season. He's hit the Over at a 61% clip over the last three months but is priced at 66% probable today in a matchup that should be tougher than average.
The Jays don't strike out a lot and can run up pitch counts. Yesterday, I faded Nick Martinez in a similar spot at plus money for a winner, and I'm going back to the well today. The Rays also used just two bullpen arms yesterday, so there are plenty of fresh arms available to cover the fifth and sixth innings.
I'd play this down to +120. Rasmussen has thrown more than 90 pitches just four times over his last 10 starts, and this lineup is very familiar with him.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet
- Prop picks: 17-15, +3.37 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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