The New York Mets’ road woes have continued this week with four straight losses, including the first two of a four-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies.
My Mets vs. Phillies predictions are targeting Philadelphia as home favorites.
Read on for my MLB picks on Wednesday, September 10.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
Mets vs Phillies best bet: Phillies moneyline (-175)
Home-field advantage may not mean much for some teams, but that’s not the case for these two NL East rivals. The New York Mets are 45-27 at home but just 31-42 on the road, and the Philadelphia Phillies are 47-23 at home with a respectable 38-37 road record.
New York has now lost four straight games on the road, getting held to three runs or fewer in each contest. The Phillies have outscored the Mets 10-3 through two games in this series, and Wednesday’s pitching matchup favors the home squad once again.
Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez has been money at Citizens Bank Park this season, with a 2.28 ERA as opposed to 2.87 on the road.
In fact, since allowing 4 ER to the Dodgers in his second home start of the season, he hasn’t given up more than 2 ER in a home start this year. Since the start of July, he’s allowed just 5 ER in 37.1 IP (1.21 ERA) in his home stadium.
Clay Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has been solid for the Mets, but he rarely goes longer than five innings and has allowed multiple runs in 10 of his last 12 starts, seeing his ERA rise from 2.99 to 3.61 (30 ER in 59 IP, 4.58 ERA) since the start of July.
Ranger Suarez threw six innings of one-hit ball on Tuesday night, and Sanchez should stifle the Mets’ bats again tonight.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
We’re stretching out our moneyline bet to the run line for the same-game parlay to get some longer odds here.
Sanchez has pitched into the seventh inning (over 18.5 outs) in six straight starts at home, and 14 of 18 outings overall.
He’s capable of racking up the strikeouts as well, with 6+ Ks in 17 of 28 starts this season, including 8+ Ks in nine games.
Mets vs Phillies SGP
- Phillies -1.5
- Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 outs
- Cristopher Sanchez 6+ Ks
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: New York +145 | Philadelphia -175
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-150) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-102) | Under 8 (-118)
Mets vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 70 games at home (+12.50 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Wednesday, September 9, 2025 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (11-7, 3.61 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Cristopher Sanchez (12-5, 2.60 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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