The Atlanta Braves will look to make it three in a row over their divisional rivals as they host the New York Mets this afternoon.
Atlanta is a -113 favorite heading into this game, and I’m backing the home team to continue New York’s misery in my Mets vs. Braves predictions. Read on for a complete analysis of this matchup and to get my free MLB picks for Sunday, July 5.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-116)
The already poor New York Mets offense has been floundering lately, averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last five outings.
New York can hit the ball hard when they make contact, but Atlanta Braves starter Martin Perez has an excellent 48.2% ground ball rate while only allowing batters to barrel the ball up 6.8% of the time.
The Braves hit Nolan McLean well the first time they saw him this year. While Atlanta has an issue with chasing bad pitches, McLean only generates a 27.9% chase rate. I’m taking the Braves at -120 or better.
COVERS INTEL: The Mets pull balls in the air just 10.8% of the time against sinkers and changeups thrown by lefties — the fourth-worst mark in MLB — pitches that Perez throws 64% of the time.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-131)
While I do think the Braves are better equipped to take advantage of this pitching matchup, McLean does a lot of things well. He’s striking out 28.5% of batters, ranks in the 95th percentile of qualified pitchers in fastball run value, and is coming off six shutout innings against the Blue Jays. He won’t let this game get out of hand.
Meanwhile, the Mets only managed one run on four hits over 5 1/3 innings the last time they faced Perez. I’m backing the Under, and I’d be willing to do so at a flat 9-run total as well.
- ML/RL bets: 13-22, -9.84 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-20, -7.96 units
Mets vs Braves weather
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Mets -108 | Braves -116
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-127)
Mets vs Braves trend
The Mets are just 2-12 over their last 14 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Sunday, July 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (5-5, 3.78 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Martin Perez (6-5, 3.27 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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