Everybody loves a long ball — but we love them even more when there's a chance to make some sweet, sweet cash off them, which is exactly what we're looking to do with FanDuel Sportsbook's Dinger Tuesday promotion!
How it works: Place one $25 bet on a player to hit a home run every Tuesday... and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game — regardless of who hits 'em.
Today's MLB schedule has two games that stand out in terms of MLB odds for dingers — Ballpark Pal's MLB Park Factors has two stadiums significantly upgraded for home runs today — but with two lineups lacking for power and pitching uncertainty (cough cough bullpen game cough cough) at Coors Field, we're going to pivot to another matchup to target on this first Tuesday of June.
See what games I'm targeting — along with the best MLB player props and values based on FanDuel's MLB home run odds — with my favorite FanDuel Dinger Tuesday plays for June 6, 2023.
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday best values
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds (Great American Ball Park, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonsolin | 1.01 | 8.7 | 45.5 | 7.9 | 39.6 |
| Luke Weaver | 2.27 | 19 | 43.3 | 11.2 | 44.0 |
Hitters to target
Hoo boy... do we have the ideal matchup for targeting home runs here?
- The Los Angeles Dodgers — who are third in HR since May 1 — at the "Great American Small Park"!
- Facing Luke Weaver, who's allowed a dinger in six of eight starts and multiple HR in half his outings!
- Winds blowing out to center/right field!
Weaver gets hit more consistently by righties (especially on his fastball and cutter), so we could look at the red-hot J.D. Martinez (+320), who has six home runs off righties over the last two weeks with a 50% fly-ball rate, as well as Mookie Betts, who has four dingers against RHP over that same span, with a 48.5% FB rate and is priced at +310, and Will Smith (+285).
Now, Weaver is an equal opportunist tater thrower: He has a higher HR/AB vs. LHB and particularly gets burned on his changeup, so Freddie Freeman (.353 with six HR off FB, .360 on offspeed pitches from righties) is in play at +320, while Jason Heyward (+420) and the slumping Max Muncy (+250) are also options, with FB rates and pull percentages both north of 50% vs. righties over the last 14 days.
Tony Gonsolin has been quite dominant so far this year, but he has been a little susceptible to getting hit on his breaking balls, so for the Cincinnati Reds you could look at Spencer Steer (+600) and Matt McLain (+600), who are both hitting above .300 on breaking balls from righties this year, as well as lefty Jake Fraley (+430), who over the last two weeks has a 51.7% fly-ball rate and 44.8% pull rate against righties, and Jonathan India (+680), who is 2-for-4 with a home run in his career off Gonsolin.
AND: We finally get the long-awaited MLB debut of Elly De La Cruz (+440), who has been destroying balls with consistency in the Minor Leagues.
Best betting value: J.D. Martinez (+320)... or any and all Dodgers
Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers (American Family Field, 7:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% | Barrel % | HardHit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 0.75 | 8.1 | 33.5 | 6.7 | 39.7 |
| Freddy Peralta | 1.49 | 14.7 | 39.1 | 9.6 | 36.0 |
Hitters to target
After allowing six HR in a seven-game stretch, Gibson has now gone four starts without getting taken yard, but his Statcast page generally ranks quite poorly, and the Baltimore Orioles pitcher has fared a bit worse against lefties — as his trademark sinker is less effective and he has to use his fastball and cutter more.
Rowdy Tellez (+430) and Christian Yelich (+630) are the two names that jump out the most for Milwaukee Brewers hitters to target, as Tellez has a near-equal amount of dingers off all pitches from righties, while all six of Yelich's home runs against RHP were off fastballs.
However, the real reason we're targeting this game is that Freddy Peralta has had a weird year: He has a career-low fly-ball rate... but a career-worst barrel and hard-hit rate, plus his second-worst HR/FB rate ever. The result is four homers allowed in his last 8 1/3 innings (spanning two starts), and eight long balls surrendered in his last six outings.
Fastballs have been his Achilles' heel this year, so we're looking at the red-hot Adley Rutschman (who is hitting .321 vs. righties over the last two weeks and has a .328 BA with six of his seven HR vs. RHP off fastballs this year) at +600, while Anthony Santander (+350) is also a play as four of his six dingers against righties have come on fastballs and Aaron Hicks (yes, that Aaron Hicks) is hitting .455 in four games since joining the O's and sits at a juicy +800.
Best betting value: Adley Rutschman (+600)
Last week's recap:
- LAA at CHW: Three HR
- NYY at SEA: Three HR
- Game with most HR: COL/ARI and WSH/LAD (Four HR)
Not intended for use in MA.
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