Game 2 between the San Francisco Giants (37-32) and Los Angeles Dodgers (39-31) gets underway Saturday night in Southern California.
Fans will hope it’s as exciting as a thrilling Game 1, where the Giants nabbed a 7-5 victory in 11 innings despite being no-hit by Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan for six innings.
Looking at MLB odds, the Dodgers are favored to get back in the win column for Game 2. They send yet another impressive rookie to the mound in Bobby Miller, and I’m targeting one of his props for tonight’s best bet.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Giants vs. Dodgers on Saturday, June 17.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
Bobby Miller has a fantastic arsenal of pitches. He throws his fastball about half the time (49.2%) and it’s a really good one, averaging 98.8 mph to rank in the 98th percentile. He complements that with a slider, curveball, and changeup, which are all positive value pitches, and the slider is particularly deadly.
FanGraphs’ Stuff+ metric, which attempts to quantify the value of a pitcher's “stuff” by taking into account things like velocity, spin rate, and movement, rates him 14th among starters. That’s a very impressive number, ahead of notable names like Dylan Cease (15th), Shane McClanahan (19th), and Zack Wheeler (22nd). His slider is the star of the show with a 127 Pitching+ (a combination of Stuff+ and Location+) that ranks fourth among starters.
He faces a Giants lineup that has been middle-of-the-road against right-handed pitching lately, ranking 17th in wRC+ (101) and 16th in wOBA (.319) across the last 10 days.
I like everything I see about Miller’s profile, as he appears to be the real deal and his team will need to lean on him while it deals with numerous starting pitcher injuries. They’re going to rely on him to effectively pitch deep into games, as manager Dave Roberts has stated that there will be no innings limit for the rookie.
His outs recorded prop is set at 17.5 and currently you can find -110 odds on either side. He’s lasted exactly six innings (18 outs) in each of his last three starts, cashing the Over in every appearance since his debut.
The Dodgers have a disaster of a bullpen (4.90 ERA — second-worst in the MLB) that lost them Game 1 despite getting six no-hit innings from a debuting rookie starting pitcher. Roberts should be in no hurry to get to his bullpen and ride Miller’s hot hand for as long as it lasts. I’ll be betting on Miller to make it through six innings in Game 2 and I’d play it up to -135 odds.
My best bet: Bobby Miller Over 17.5 outs recorded (-110)
Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Miller Over 17.5 Outs (-115)
Miller Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
We’ll be using my best bet for the first leg of this SGP. I’ve outlined above why I like the play and I think the odds are generous.
The second leg will feature Miller to also go Over 5.5 strikeouts. This is a correlated play, as the longer Miller lasts in the game, the more opportunities he’ll get to punch out Giants. You have to pay -140 on this prop and that’s one of the reasons I’m not using it as a single bet, but it’s still a strong look when targeting an SGP that has correlation.
He’s generated a superb 26.4% K-rate thus far in the Big Leagues and has a decent 11.8% swinging strike rate. The Giants have the fourth-highest K-rate (24.9%) against right-handed pitching this season, so this isn’t a bad matchup and he’s pitching at home.
The last leg will be an odds-juicer as we’re taking J.D. Martinez to go Over 1.5 total bases at +135 odds, which brings our final SGP odds to +450.
Martinez annihilates left-handed pitchers, against whom he has an .874 OPS since 2021. This is not a scary matchup against Alex Wood, who had a 5.10 ERA last year and doesn’t look much better with a 4.80 ERA, 4.32 xERA, and 4.57 FIP this season.
We may not be able to match our +850 SGP cash in Game 1 of this series, but I like our chances in Game 2.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers are current favorites of between -165 to -172 depending which book you use.
The Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball with an 8-2 record across their last 10 games — a record that only four other teams can match.
That’s a stark contrast to the Dodgers, who are playing their worst baseball of the season. The Boys in Blue have dropped nine of their last 14 games.
The good news for Roberts’ squad is that his team is 3-1 in Miller’s four starts and they’re excellent at home (22-11). They have typically gotten the better of this matchup, winning nine of the last 11 meetings in LA.
The total is set at 8.5 across the board.
The Dodgers have mashed left-handed pitching lately, ranking sixth in wRC+ (132) and fourth in wOBA (.363) since the start of June. They tagged Sean Manaea for four earned runs in just 3 ? innings of work yesterday and now get to see another lefty a day later.
Miller has been terrific but the bullpen behind him is worrisome and may be taxed after Roberts was forced to throw six relievers in last night’s extra-innings affair.
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Trend to know
Miller has gone Over 17.5 outs recorded in each of his last three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, June 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
Alex Wood (1-1, 4.80 ERA): The veteran left-hander is expected to be activated from the 15-day IL to start Game 2. The Giants used an opener in Game 1 and are in need of another starter, so in enters Wood after making a 53-pitch rehab appearance at AAA Sacramento last Sunday. He’s been sidelined with a back injury since the beginning of June. He has a 4.32 xERA across seven starts.
Bobby Miller (3-0, 0.78 ERA): The 24-year-old is off to a terrific start, holding a microscopic 0.78 ERA while striking out 23 batters across his first four starts. He’s just the second Dodgers pitcher since 1991 to allow one run or fewer in each of his first four starts while lasting five innings in each. He’s not expected to have an innings limit this season and there’s been no pitch count yet either after he threw 104 in his last outing.
