Dodgers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Heaney Remains Stuck in Slump

The Los Angeles Dodgers won the second game of their three-game series with the San Diego Padres and now their magic number to clinch the NL West is four. 

They will try and make it two on Sunday when they play the Padres in the finale at Petco Park. Andrew Heaney will be on the mound for the Dodgers, while the Padres are countering with Joe Musgrove. 

Can the Dodgers lower the magic number even more or will the Padres seal the series win? Check out my MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on September 11.

Dodgers vs Padres best odds

Dodgers vs Padres picks and predictions

Andrew Heaney has been handing out home runs lately like free perfume samples at the shopping mall. In his last start against the San Francisco Giants, he gave up four dingers. He'd also given up six homers across the three starts before that. 

After the Giants debacle, where he allowed six earned runs overall, Heaney told reporters that he realized what he was doing wrong. 

“I was throwing [stuff] right down the middle,” Heaney said. “Didn't do a good job of mixing pitches very well, didn’t put guys away. I made mistakes, they capitalized.”

Knowing what he is doing wrong and fixing it are two separate issues. Manager Dave Roberts said he is confident in Heaney to figure out how to correct the issue. 

“I think that the mistakes that he is making, they're just going out of the ballpark instead of mis-hitting or fouling off,” Roberts said. “I think the internal numbers, as long as he's throwing the ball well, the stuff’s good, there's swing and miss in there, there's something we can certainly build upon.”

In addition to the home runs, Heaney has been far too generous with earned runs as well. Before the Giants outing, he had four straight games where he allowed two or more earned runs. 

Now he has to face a San Diego lineup that is 12th in the majors in runs with 618. That is an average of 4.4 per game. 

They might not be a threat to hit home runs, they are 21st with 130, but they do get batters across the plate. They are 12th in RBI and 14th in hits. 

The total for earned runs for Heaney is 1.5 at -140. I'm not crazy about the odds, but I love the prop bet. Look for Heaney to give up at least two runs on Sunday, one of which might even be a home run. 

My best bet: Andrew Heaney Over 1.5 earned runs (-140 at DraftKings)

Dodgers vs Padres betting preview

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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

The Dodgers lead this series 11-4 and will try to win the finale on Sunday to inch closer to clinching the NL West. 

The odds for the Dodgers in Sunday’s game is -120, while the Padres are fetching +110. Both teams are sending out pitchers who have been struggling so it’s almost a pick your poison scenario. 

Andrew Heaney and Joe Musgrove have faced the division rival once this season. Heaney saw San Diego on August 6 and allowed three unearned runs on four hits. San Diego’s Joe Musgrove pitched against the Dodgers on June 30. He allowed three earned runs on five hits in seven innings.  

The better play, especially if you are backing the Dodgers, would be the run line. Los Angeles is -1.5 at +135. 

Either team has won by more than two runs in 13 of 15 appearances. The Dodgers are 11-4 against the Padres and have won every game by more than two runs. The Padres are 2-2 when it comes to winning by two or more runs when they defeat Los Angeles. 

Look for the Dodgers to win their second straight against the Padres and to do so by two or more runs at plus-money odds.

Over/Under analysis

When these two teams get together, they like to score runs. The Over has hit in each of the last five games and is 9-6 on the season between the two clubs. 

Both starting pitchers should contribute to the Over. The Dodgers’ Andrew Heaney has been mediocre in his last six games, allowing 21 runs on 23 hits in 32.2 innings. San Diego’s Joe Musgrove has been equally as bad, allowing 24 runs on 46 hits in his last seven games. 

In both of their last appearances, the two gave up home runs. Heaney surrendered four against the San Francisco Giants, while Musgrove gave up three solo shots to the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

The trends certainly support the Over. It has hit in seven of the last eight games for the Dodgers and is 6-0 in the last six Game 3s of a series. 

The Padres have hit the Over in each of the last five games against a left-handed starter and are 4-0 on the Over in Game 3 of a series. 

Most sportsbooks have the total set at 8 runs, with the Over and Under at -110. 

Dodgers vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet Los Angeles, Bally Sports San Diego

Starting pitchers

Andrew Heaney (2-2, 2.94 ERA): Don’t let the ERA under 3.00 fool you, Heaney has been struggling for the last month. His last outing was against the San Francisco Giants and he allowed six runs on six hits, unable to get out of the sixth inning. In his five previous starts before the Giants, he has allowed 15 runs on 23 hits. His ERA has been steadily climbing as well. A month ago it was 0.77, six starts later it is up to 2.94. 

Joe Musgrove (9-6, 3.16 ERA): Musgrove is another pitcher who has seen better outings earlier in the year. His last three have been as frustrating as Heaney’s. In his last game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he gave up three home runs, part of a five-run, nine-hit performance over 4 1-3 innings. In his two appearances before his most recent start, the 29-year-old righty has given up three and eight runs in 6 2-3 and 3 2-3 innings. 

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

Andrew Heaney has allowed two or more earned runs in his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres

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